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We established an external demand tracking database and research framework in the report "AI's 'New World' and External Demand's 'Old Map'." August exports beat expectations, AI reaccelerated, consumption and electromechanical sectors repaired at the margin, and new energy slowed.

August export growth rose to 25.0%, and the export growth rate of the AI chain continued to increase, such as optical modules, storage, CCL, electronic cloth, etc. In the non-AI chain, the export growth rate of new energy declined, resource goods growth rebounded to 11.4%, electromechanical equipment and consumer goods still maintained growth of 15%-20%, and more consumer goods categories showed marginal improvement in growth.

Among the 68 major single products, the distribution of the boom cycle position in the four quadrants is as follows: the upward zone is mainly AI varieties plus non-AI repair varieties; the high-level fluctuation zone is mostly AI-related price-increasing products; the downward zone is concentrated in new energy categories; the bottoming zone is mainly durable consumer goods related to the real estate chain.

The non-AI varieties with upward momentum are mainly driven by overseas manufacturing capital expenditure, channel restocking and share expansion; AI varieties in high-level fluctuation have shifted from beta to alpha, and attention should be paid to value-enhancing links such as high-layer boards, HDI, CPO/NPO, and HBM.

Combining export momentum with listed companies' export exposure, we screened more than 20 categories with high growth and accelerating growth as high-prosperity directions for third-quarter reports. The screening conditions are: 1) monthly export growth greater than 20%; 2) monthly growth rising month-on-month, and the 3-month moving average of growth rising month-on-month; 3) the average 2025 export revenue proportion of core targets is greater than 20%.

Among the qualifying categories: (1) AI hardware: memory chips, optical modules, optical chips, optical cable, PCB, electronic cloth, MLCC, liquid cooling heat dissipation. (2) Electromechanical equipment: gas turbines, tractors, industrial robots, freight containers, petrochemical equipment. (3) Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, aluminum foil, ternary precursors. (4) Resource goods: copper, tin, molybdenum. (5) Consumer goods: air conditioners, motorcycles, electric motorcycles.

We discuss investment opportunities in the export chain from short-term, medium-term and long-term dimensions: in the short term, look at high-frequency export momentum changes; in the medium term, look at overseas fundamentals and restocking demand; in the long term, look at the ceiling of export penetration rate.

(1) In the short term, look at high-frequency export momentum changes: September export growth may fall slightly and rebound in October. AI hardware is still the direction with the most concentrated momentum, while non-AI categories diverge. The rhythm changes mainly stem from base effects and working-day misalignment. The policy window is concentrated in November, with key focus on overseas cloud vendors' capital expenditure guidance in late October, the October FOMC, the EU inverter old-regulation deadline in November, and China-U.S. interaction during the November APEC meeting; tail risks lie in the U.S. overcapacity Section 301 ruling and the new round of China-U.S. consultations on January 10, 2027.

(2) In the medium term, look at overseas fundamentals and restocking demand: upward overseas manufacturing momentum and restocking demand support external demand. Since 2019, the correlation coefficient between China's export growth and the manufacturing PMIs of Germany and the United States has been about 0.8; in September, the global manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0, and the U.S. rose to 55.9. The overall U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio is near a historical low, inventory year-on-year has begun to rise, and restocking demand for durable consumer goods is relatively certain.

(3) In the long term, look at the ceiling of export penetration rate: categories with still-low export penetration have room for share gains. For China's advantageous export varieties such as home appliances, mobile phones, and furniture, the long-term export penetration ceiling is around 40%; categories currently below 25% penetration include trucks, tractors, buses, cutting tools and blades, transformers; medical devices such as high-value consumables, in vitro diagnostic reagents, physicochemical equipment, imaging equipment; APIs; cosmetics, pet supplies, MDI; SoC/MCU, power devices, analog chips, semiconductor equipment and parts, etc.

Risk warning: geopolitical conflicts exceed expectations; AI industry development and application implementation progress fall short of expectations; the magnitude of Federal Reserve rate hikes exceeds expectations; China-U.S. economic and trade consultations and European and U.S. trade policy changes exceed expectations; the intensity of domestic growth-stabilization policies falls short of expectations.

Main text of the report

I. Using export chain momentum to preview third-quarter opportunities

(1) External demand tracking system: 5 major categories/26 sub-sectors/215 categories + 68 major single products

In the report "AI's 'New World' and External Demand's 'Old Map'," we established an external demand tracking database and research framework. Based on the customs HS commodity system, we built an external demand tracking system covering 5 major categories, 26 sub-sectors and 215 categories. The 5 major categories are AI hardware, electromechanical equipment, new energy, resource goods and consumer goods, with export shares of 15.7%, 13.6%, 10.7%, 4.3% and 29.8% respectively in August 2026, totaling about 74% of China's total exports. Category division is based on the standard of being able to correspond to A-share listed assets. The 215 categories cover about 1,000 export-oriented listed companies, with an average export revenue proportion of more than 40%. On this basis, we selected 68 major single products as the core sample for tracking the export chain boom cycle.

(2) Total exports: August export growth rose to 25.0%, with North America, Latin America and Africa growth rising

China's exports in August grew 25.0% year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points higher than in July. By region, export growth to North America, Latin America and Africa rose to 31.9%, 17.5% and 30.9% respectively; export growth to ASEAN and the EU fell to 30.2% and 6.6% respectively. Export growth to the United States rose from 17.0% in July to 34.4%, mainly due to a low base in the same period last year, as exports to the United States fell 33.1% year-on-year in August 2025. At the policy level, tariff disturbances remain, and there is room for marginal improvement in China-U.S. economic and trade relations. According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) website, the new round of U.S. Section 301 tariffs took effect on July 24, imposing an additional 12.5% on China, replacing the expiring Section 122 10% global tariff. According to the Ministry of Commerce website, in late September, China-U.S. economic and trade consultations agreed to extend the Kuala Lumpur joint arrangement to January 10, 2027. If subsequent efforts promote tariff reductions on some products or expand the scope of tariff exemptions, this can offset the impact of some new tariffs on bilateral trade.

(3) 5 major categories: AI reaccelerates, consumption and electromechanical continue to recover, new energy slows

August exports were better than expected, and the export growth rate of the AI industrial chain continued to increase. AI hardware exports grew 77.5% year-on-year, 7.0 percentage points higher than in July, and growth in optical modules, storage, CCL, electronic cloth and other links is still rising. In the non-AI chain, new energy export growth fell from 50.6% to 37.2%, resource goods rebounded from 0.4% to 11.4%; electromechanical equipment and consumer goods grew 15.0% and 17.7% respectively, slightly lower than in July but still in the 15%-20% range, and more consumer goods subcategories showed marginal improvement in growth.

(4) 68 major single products: export chain boom cycle positions

We divide the boom cycle positions of the 68 major single products into four stages: boom upward, high-level fluctuation, boom downward and cycle bottoming. After the August update, the number of categories in the four stages was 23, 20, 14 and 11 respectively.

(1) Boom upward (focus on sustainability and elasticity): In addition to the AI industrial chain, some non-AI varieties are also recovering. Categories in the boom upward stage include optical modules, memory chips, power devices, analog chips, semiconductor parts, servers, IoT terminals, forklifts, tractors, hand tools, cutting tools and blades, smart meters, vitamins, feed amino acids, trucks, golf carts, general diagnostic equipment, physicochemical analysis equipment, APIs, antibiotics, high-value consumables, air conditioners and small home appliances. There are three main drivers for the rise of non-AI varieties: first, overseas manufacturing recovery drives capital expenditure, benefiting forklifts, tractors, smart meters, trucks, etc.; second, overseas channel restocking, as hand tools, air conditioners and small home appliances return to low channel inventory after two years of destocking and begin spontaneous restocking; third, improved competitiveness of Chinese products brings share expansion, as cutting tools and blades, diagnostic equipment, physicochemical analysis equipment, APIs and high-value consumables still have low penetration rates, and the going-global logic continues to materialize.

(2) High-level fluctuation (from beta to alpha): AI-related varieties need to shift from sector-wide moves to subsector links. Categories in high-level fluctuation include optical fiber and cable, PCB, MLCC, semiconductor equipment, tantalum aluminum electrolytic capacitors, excavators, transformers, high-voltage switches, low-voltage switches, micro special motors, ships, titanium dioxide, MDI, electric vehicles, motorcycles and two-wheelers, wireless earphones, smartphones, refrigerators, televisions and vacuum cleaners. These include both AI-related cyclical price-increasing products and capital goods such as power equipment, construction machinery and ships, as well as some consumer electronics, home appliances and chemical products. For AI-related varieties, high-level fluctuation means the beta market is nearing its end, and overall sector profit growth may fall back at the margin, but subsector links with obvious technological iteration and value enhancement still have opportunities, such as high-layer boards and HDI in PCB, as well as CPO/NPO in optical modules and HBM in storage, which remain in the upward range.

(3) Boom downward (avoid): mainly concentrated in new energy. Categories in boom downward include cranes, nitrogen fertilizer, insecticides and herbicides, rare earths and alloys, PTA, photovoltaic modules, inverters, wind turbine complete machines, wind power parts, converters, lithium batteries, buses, washing machines and pet supplies. New energy has been greatly affected by European and U.S. trade policies, and most categories saw growth peaks in the first quarter of this year; momentum for some cyclical price-increasing products has also fallen significantly.

(4) Cycle bottoming (focus on the driving force for a cycle restart): mainly consumer goods. Categories in cycle bottoming include SoC/MCU, compound fertilizer, automobile tires, imaging diagnostic equipment, in vitro diagnostic reagents, home medical care, bed textiles, clothing, sofa mattresses, cosmetics and electric seats. One group is home furnishing, textiles and apparel with high correlation to the overseas real estate cycle, and the other is medical devices. Looking ahead, low inventories provide support, while high interest rates still weigh on demand, and whether recovery can occur needs continued tracking.

(5) High-prosperity directions for third-quarter reports: high growth and accelerating growth

Combining export momentum with listed companies' export exposure, we screened 27 categories with high growth and accelerating growth as high-prosperity directions for third-quarter reports. The screening conditions are: 1) monthly export growth greater than 20%; 2) monthly growth rising month-on-month, and the 3-month moving average of growth rising month-on-month; 3) the average 2025 export revenue proportion of core targets is greater than 20%.

Among the qualifying categories: (1) AI hardware: memory chips, optical modules, optical chips, optical cable, PCB, electronic cloth, MLCC, liquid cooling heat dissipation. (2) Electromechanical equipment: gas turbines, tractors, industrial robots, freight containers, petrochemical equipment. (3) Lithium battery materials: electrolyte, aluminum foil, ternary precursors. (4) Resource goods: copper, tin, molybdenum. (5) Consumer goods: air conditioners, motorcycles, electric motorcycles.

II. Short-, medium- and long-term investment opportunities in the export chain

On the basis of the cross-sectional review, we discuss investment opportunities in the export chain from short-term, medium-term and long-term dimensions: in the short term, look at high-frequency export momentum changes; in the medium term, look at overseas fundamentals and restocking demand; in the long term, look at the ceiling of export penetration rate.

(1) In the short term, look at high-frequency export momentum changes

From the latest data on the 68 major single products, AI hardware is still the direction with the most concentrated momentum, while non-AI categories diverge. AI hardware: memory chips, optical modules, analog chips and semiconductor parts are in boom upward, and volume-price signals are still strengthening. According to South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, South Korea's chip exports in September grew 263% year-on-year, and the DDR5 (16Gb) contract price rose 28% from May to September; PCB, MLCC and optical fiber and cable are in high-level fluctuation, and price increases are an important support for export value growth. Non-AI categories: in electromechanical equipment, forklifts, tractors, cutting tools and blades, and smart meters are in the upward range, while transformer growth has fallen under a high base and entered a plateau; in new energy, photovoltaic modules showed weak volume and price after the export tax rebate was canceled in April, wind turbine complete machines turned negative from a high level in August, and lithium batteries may see rush exports in the fourth quarter before the export tax rebate is canceled in 2027; in consumer goods, golf carts, air conditioners, small home appliances and physicochemical analysis equipment have upward momentum, in vitro diagnostic reagents show signs of taking the lead in emerging from bottoming, while home textiles, clothing, sofa mattresses, etc. are still pressured by high overseas interest rates.

Looking ahead, September export growth may fall slightly and rebound in October, with rhythm changes mainly due to base effects and working-day misalignment; AI hardware is still the direction with the most concentrated momentum, while non-AI categories diverge. The policy window is concentrated in November, with key focus on overseas cloud vendors' capital expenditure guidance in late October, the October FOMC, the EU inverter old-regulation deadline in November, and China-U.S. interaction during the November APEC meeting; there are two main tail risks: first, the rulings of the U.S. overcapacity Section 301 investigation and Section 232 investigation, and second, the expiration of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation joint arrangement on January 10, 2027.

(2) In the medium term, look at overseas fundamentals and restocking demand

First, the key to external demand beta lies in European and U.S. manufacturing momentum. Since 2019, the correlation between China's export growth and the PMIs of most countries has strengthened, and the correlation with manufacturing PMIs is generally higher than with services PMIs. At present, China's export growth has the highest correlation with the manufacturing PMIs of Germany and the United States. Since the China-U.S. trade friction, the correlation between China's export growth and the U.S. PMI has not declined. In addition, global manufacturing momentum is still on an upward trend. In September, the global manufacturing PMI rose to 53.0, a high for the year; the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 55.9, Asian economies such as China, South Korea, India and Indonesia rebounded, while Germany and Japan fell slightly but remained in expansion territory.

Second, an extremely low inventory-to-sales ratio brings spontaneous restocking demand. Since early 2026, the inventory-to-sales ratios of U.S. manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers have continued to fall, and the overall inventory-to-sales ratio is near a historical low, with signs of replenishment already appearing. At the industry level, inventory percentiles in 70% of U.S. durable goods industries are below 50: first, demand in the technology industry is relatively strong, and inventories in computers, audio-visual equipment, etc. are all at low levels; second, traditional industries are pressured by high interest rates, and inventories in furniture, trucks, home appliances and industrial machinery have also not been replenished. Overseas restocking demand strongly supports overseas manufacturing PMIs and China's exports.

(3) In the long term, look at the ceiling of export penetration rate

In the long term, export penetration rate determines the room for share gains. The global export penetration rate of China's advantageous export varieties such as home appliances, mobile phones and furniture is around 40%, which can serve as a reference for the long-term ceiling. Categories currently below 25% penetration include: trucks, tractors, buses, cutting tools and blades, transformers, high-value consumables in medical devices, in vitro diagnostic reagents, physicochemical analysis equipment, imaging diagnostic equipment, as well as APIs, cosmetics, pet supplies, MDI, SoC/MCU, power devices, analog chips, semiconductor equipment and parts, etc., where share still has room to rise.

III. Export momentum tracking of subdivided commodities

The following tracks export momentum of each subsector by the 5 major categories. It should be noted that the export growth rates under the five major category caliber and the 68 major single product caliber are not completely consistent: the 68 major single products are counted bottom-up and cover about 95% of export regions; each major single product is aggregated from 1 to 8 HS codes, making the caliber more precise; some subsectors in the five major categories use customs statistical calibers and are not part of the HS classification system.

(1) AI hardware: overall high momentum, but divergence among subsectors intensifies

AI hardware overall has relatively high export momentum, but growth in subsectors has begun to diverge. Growth in memory chips, optical modules, optical chips, CCL, electronic cloth, MLCC and other links is still increasing; analog chips, optical fiber, PCB, copper foil and inductors have entered high-level fluctuation; export growth of servers, switches and server power supplies is between 10%-25%, with relatively weak elasticity.

(2) Electromechanical equipment: recovery trend continues, with high momentum in tractors and power machinery

Electromechanical equipment exports continue to recover, with relatively high growth in power machinery and some special equipment. Links with relatively high growth in August include tractors, gas turbines, excavators, loaders, petrochemical equipment, environmental protection equipment, containers, industrial robots and cutting tools and blades.

(3) New energy: lithium battery exports flat at a high level, photovoltaic and wind power fall back significantly

Among new energy sectors, lithium battery export momentum remains relatively high but shows signs of weakening month-on-month. Battery export growth has flattened after falling from the March high, and growth in midstream materials has diverged: ternary precursors, electrolyte and structural parts rebounded month-on-month, while copper foil, conductive agents and anode materials fell month-on-month; photovoltaic and wind power export growth continued to decline.

(4) Resource goods: August export growth rebounded, mainly driven by copper, zinc and tin

Resource goods export growth rebounded in August, but resource goods export growth is highly volatile, and marginal changes in single-month data usually cannot determine the trend. In August, potassium fertilizer exports among chemicals grew strongly; among base metals, growth in copper/zinc/tin rose again; among rare metals, tantalum/germanium/indium were still accelerating, but growth in rare earths/tungsten/antimony/cobalt and other categories fell sharply; among non-metallic materials, fluorspar/cement had relatively high momentum.

(5) Consumer goods: August export growth weakened slightly, still in a bottom recovery trend

Consumer goods export growth in August was 17.7%, slightly lower than in July, but still in a bottom recovery trend. Varieties with relatively good momentum include trucks, motorcycles, golf carts, air conditioners, electric fans, security cameras, mobile phones, as well as physicochemical analysis equipment, APIs, in vitro diagnostic reagents and lighting fixtures.

IV. Risk warning

First, geopolitical conflicts exceed expectations. Repeated Middle East tensions may push up oil prices and shipping costs, increase global inflationary pressure, and disturb the pace of exports.

Second, AI industry development and application implementation progress fall short of expectations. If overseas cloud vendors lower capital expenditure guidance, exports in the computing power chain such as optical modules, PCB and servers may slow.

Third, the magnitude of Federal Reserve rate hikes exceeds expectations. U.S. inflation stickiness is relatively strong, and if rate hikes exceed expectations, overseas demand may slow.

Fourth, China-U.S. economic and trade consultations and European and U.S. trade policy changes exceed expectations. The direction after the overcapacity Section 301 and Section 232 rulings and the expiration of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation joint arrangement remains uncertain, which may affect exports of related categories.

Fifth, the intensity of domestic growth-stabilization policies falls short of expectations, economic recovery is weak, and market risk appetite declines.

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