As the National Day holiday draws to a close, a wave of brokerages including CITIC Securities, Guojin Securities, Everbright Securities, Shanxi Securities, Zhongtai Securities, and Caitong Securities have released their October strategy reports, offering their assessments of the post-holiday market outlook.

According to institutional reviews of the Shanghai Composite Index's performance after the National Day holiday over the past decade, the odds of a positive opening are quite favorable. Data shows that since 2016, the probability of gains on the first trading day after the holiday has reached 70%; the probability of gains over the three days following the holiday stands at 60%, and the probability of gains over the five days after the holiday also stands at 60%. In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.32%, 0.17%, and 0.76% on the first, third, and fifth days after the National Day holiday, respectively.

Overall, the market widely believes that September's correction has already released some valuation pressure. In October, with overseas liquidity pressures easing at the margin, improved China-U.S. relations, and post-holiday capital inflows providing joint support, market performance is likely to trend positive. However, high interest rate constraints and weak domestic demand mean limited rebound momentum. A structural landscape characterized by a "balanced yet slightly growth-tilted" approach, with performance verification at its core, remains the dominant theme.