An emerging markets economist and strategist at a Swiss private bank, Mali Chivakul, believes that emerging market bonds have shown relatively steady performance.
So far this year, the rise in local-currency government bond yields across emerging markets has remained modest, and this has been especially resilient compared with developed markets.
For example, after recent elections in Hungary, Colombia and Brazil, investors began anticipating a shift in fiscal policy regimes, which helped push local bond yields lower.
Other high-yield markets such as Mexico have also benefited from attractive carry returns, making them relatively less sensitive to changes in US Treasury yields.
Recently, bond yields in Poland, Indonesia and the Philippines have shown the strongest correlation with US Treasury yields.
Among them, Poland is mainly affected by a large primary fiscal deficit and continuously rising debt.
Indonesia and the Philippines, meanwhile, are both current-account deficit countries and, compared with other Asian nations, rely more heavily on foreign capital to finance their fiscal needs.
Mali Chivakul believes that, relative to developed markets, emerging markets have more favorable fiscal conditions and trends, which are likely to continue supporting their resilience.
However, Mali Chivakul also cautions that Central and Eastern European countries facing primary fiscal deficits and rising debt problems will be more vulnerable to spillover effects from eurozone debt issues, and investors should closely monitor these risks.