On October 9, gold went through a choppy session. It edged up at the Asian open, but in the European and US sessions it mostly hovered in the 4,110-4,140 range. Gold finally closed at $4,133, leaving a small bullish candle on the daily chart. It did not rush higher, nor did it continue to plunge.
On Monday (October 9), the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes released in the early hours showed that at the September 15-16 meeting, the Fed hiked by 25 basis points, lifting the rate range to 3.75%-4.00%, with all 12 voting members in favor. The probability of holding steady in October is about 80%, but the odds of a December hike still sit between 64% and 85%. The expectation that "another hike will come in December" has not disappeared, and that is the ceiling pressing down on gold prices. In the near term, however, October will most likely see no move, which gives gold some breathing room.
In addition, the six-month-long US-Iran conflict is still ongoing. Trump said he will not take action against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, and Iran's foreign minister also said there would be a "reply within days" to the US plan to reopen the strait, with the two sides still exchanging proposals. But Iran's Atomic Energy Organization made clear that it will not give up uranium enrichment or hand over its stockpile. At the same time, the US Treasury imposed new sanctions on 17 ships linked to Iran. This still provides considerable support for gold.
From a technical perspective, gold staged a rally in today's early trading, breaking through the 4,145-4,150 pressure band formed by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages. This rise is still mainly a passive result of the US dollar's pullback and correction. On the upside, gold may test the medium-term trendline resistance near 4,180-4,190. Compared with the dollar's movement, if the dollar's intraday correction expands or it continues to show weakness, gold may take the opportunity to expand its rebound space, and could then test the 20-day moving average near 4,220-4,230. But even if the market really moves that way, as long as gold does not stand above 4,230 on the daily chart, the medium-term trend will remain weak, and any later decline would still need bearish fundamental support.
In short, 4,100-4,250 is currently the large box range, so treat it with a range-trading mindset and do not chase rallies or sell into declines. The real directional choice must wait for the October FOMC meeting and subsequent US inflation data. At this position, patience is worth more than guessing direction. For the day, just trade back and forth within a smaller range and take quick profits. Follow the public account Zhang Jinlei for free real-time profitable trade calls; friends who need cooperation please follow and consult.
Therefore, for intraday operations, Zhang Jinlei recommends: Gold: short at 4,188-4,190, stop loss at 4,200, target 4,120-4,110.
Key economic data and events to watch today: Friday, October 9, 2026, 22:00 US October preliminary one-year inflation rate expectation; 22:00 US October preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index; next day 04:00 Fed's Collins speaks.