On October 8, crude oil prices swung sharply, but that did not stop some producing regions from increasing supply.

The institution said a September 30 report, citing a Dallas Fed survey, noted that surveyed exploration and production firms continued to raise oil and gas output in the third quarter. The survey covered Texas and parts of surrounding areas, showing local companies had reported two consecutive quarters of output growth, though the results do not equal a national statistic.

Even so, surveyed firms were quite divided in their views on year-end crude prices, forecasting West Texas Intermediate at an average of $88 per barrel, with individual predictions ranging from $70 to $126.

In the platform's view, the wide forecast range reflects a lack of consensus on the budget environment. Even as current output rises, companies may still plan new, longer-dated projects cautiously.

In the second-quarter data reviewed by the report, the capital spending index climbed to 40.9 from 21.2, with nearly half of firms increasing outlays, yet the expected spending index for the following year stood at zero.

These two sets of indicators belong to different time dimensions. Current investment expansion cannot be directly extrapolated into next year, nor should survey indexes be interpreted as actual investment amounts or output growth rates.

Different companies' project timelines may also widen the lag between budgets and output.

Whether subsequent supply can continue to increase requires observing well completion pace, service costs and budget updates together.

The institution analyzed that output released by existing projects can support supply in the short term, while a new round of investment depends more on the predictability of the price range.

If firms' uncertainty about returns persists, the pace of advancing new capacity may remain cautious even if spot prices stay relatively high.