On October 8, as gold prices retreated, different types of capital did not take the same actions.
Moneta Markets noted that in a September 30 interview report, Morgan Stanley's metals strategist mentioned that some algorithmic trading funds may have already adjusted their gold positions, while gold exchange-traded funds continued to increase allocations, meaning that selling pressure sources and long-term demand cannot be conflated.
Some positions established in August were close to recent price levels, and a rapid price decline could easily trigger exits.
Moneta Markets believes that funds relying on trend signals are more sensitive to technical changes, and their position reductions may amplify short-term volatility; funds with longer holding periods may not necessarily withdraw in sync, which explains how price pressure and inflows into some funds can occur at the same time.
A stronger dollar raises the cost for non-dollar holders to buy gold, but this relationship is not permanently fixed.
The interview also emphasized that the correlation between gold and the dollar changes across different environments, and in some periods they may move in the same direction.
Therefore, when assessing capital behavior, it is necessary to distinguish among exchange-rate effects, position adjustments, and asset allocation demand, and not treat a negative correlation during a certain period as a rule that is always valid.
Only when price, trading volume, and positioning data corroborate one another can the persistence of capital adjustments be more clearly identified.
Rather than directly adopting a target price for a year later, what is more worth verifying at this stage is changes in positioning.
Moneta Markets analysis says that if selling by trend funds gradually slows while fund inflows remain continuous, the market's absorption situation will become clearer; if inflows weaken, the support assumptions should be re-examined.
Research institutions' forward-looking judgments still depend on conditions and cannot be regarded as price commitments.