Spot Gold Falls 0.42% to $4,176.84/Oz as Investors Weigh Weaker Crude and Fed Policy Direction

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1 hour ago

Gold prices moved back and forth between gains and losses as market participants evaluated the consequences of softer oil prices while awaiting economic figures that could clarify the US Federal Reserve's interest-rate trajectory.

Bullion changed hands below $4,200 per ounce, giving back some of the gains recorded earlier during the Asian session. Brent crude declined to roughly $104 per barrel as the market balanced steady Middle East supply flows against escalating regional tensions.

The yellow metal drew some support in early Monday trading, a holiday for US debt markets, after yields on the 30-year US Treasury pulled back last Friday. Investment demand has also provided a lift in recent days, with gold-backed exchange-traded funds increasing their holdings last week and the People's Bank of China stepping up its purchases.

Nevertheless, gold has lost a fifth of its value since the US-Iran war began in late February. Disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East have kept inflation risks elevated and pushed some central banks to tighten monetary policy, a headwind for the non-yielding precious metal.

The metal is caught between strong structural investment and central-bank demand on one side and elevated bond yields and tighter monetary-policy expectations on the other, said Manav Modi, commodities analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

"The macro backdrop remains challenging as persistent inflationary pressures continue to keep additional Fed tightening on the table, supporting Treasury yields and maintaining pressure on real rates," he said.

The planned appearance by Fed chairman Kevin Warsh on Thursday in a discussion at the International Monetary Fund's annual meeting in Bangkok could provide insights into the central bank's thinking. Traders are also waiting for several economic releases including US inflation data this week.

Separately, US President Donald Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an "energy ceasefire," which would help ease fuel supply and cost concerns, and allow central banks to hold off on further tightening. But traders were cautious as Trump had previously announced a similar ceasefire and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later said no deal had been finalized and the war continued.

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