According to financial media reports, as the fourth quarter of 2026 begins, Goldman Sachs has selected 10 stocks within the energy and power complex that offer attractive risk-reward profiles, based on four key investment themes: continued momentum in oil and gas exploration and production (E&P), U.S. power and LNG themes, upside potential in the refining sector, and sentiment-driven mispricing in the natural gas midstream and upstream space.

Based on closing prices on October 7, these ten stocks have an average total return potential of approximately 27% and an average year-to-date gain of 42%.

Theme One: Continued E&P Momentum, Focus on Free Cash Flow Inflection Points

Under this theme, Goldman Sachs' top pick is ConocoPhillips (COP.US), with a latest target price of $146. The company is approaching a $7 billion free cash flow inflection point, with four major projects — NFE, NFS, Port Arthur, and Willow — coming online successively. Combined with $1 billion in cost reductions, it is expected to achieve a 20%-25% compound annual growth rate in free cash flow per share under a long-term Brent oil price assumption of $75 per barrel, and return approximately 45% of operating cash flow to shareholders, with the return ratio expected to approach 50% in the second half of 2026. Near-term catalysts include winter construction at the Willow project and the first liquefaction train at Qatar's NFE facility commencing production in early 2027.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) has a latest target price of $69. The firm upgraded its rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" on August 30 and added it to the Americas Conviction List. The company's average free cash flow yield for 2027/2028 is approximately 13%, higher than the 11% for large-cap peers. It plans to add $4 billion in sustainable cash flow by 2030, with conventional and unconventional resources totaling over 4 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and is expected to reach its $10 billion principal debt target by early 2027.

Permian Resources (PR.US) has a latest target price of $27. The stock has already risen 58% this year, but the firm still expects its free cash flow per share to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 20% from 2025 to 2028. Its 16% free cash flow yield is significantly higher than the 13% for oil-weighted peers. The $1.05 billion in bolt-on acquisitions this year and recovering Waha gas prices in the Permian Basin provide additional upside.

Theme Two: Power and LNG Themes, Grid and Data Center Construction as Core Drivers

Quanta Services (PWR.US) has a latest target price of $902. The firm views it as a core beneficiary of grid and data center construction, with 765-kilovolt large-scale transmission projects continuing to be deployed. Its power business accounts for approximately 80% of revenue, and revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of approximately 15% through 2030. The target price corresponds to a 30x forward enterprise value multiple.

Duke Energy (DUK.US) has a latest target price of $147. It is relatively immune to election risk (its largest jurisdiction, North Carolina, has no gubernatorial election this year), with approximately 15.4 gigawatts of high-confidence load pipeline in hand, of which approximately 7.8 gigawatts have signed power supply agreements and approximately 5.2 gigawatts are under construction. Management is expected to raise its earnings growth guidance from 5%-7%. The firm expects its earnings per share compound annual growth rate of approximately 8%, above the consensus estimate of approximately 7%.

Baker Hughes (BKR.US) has a latest target price of $71. The firm is bullish on synergies from the Chart Industries consolidation and upside in aftermarket services, and expects the Industrial and Energy Technology (IET) segment's EBITDA margin to rise to approximately 25% by 2031.

Golar LNG (GLNG.US) has a latest target price of $67, with total return potential of approximately 38%, the highest among the ten picks. The firm expects its existing assets to achieve approximately $1.2 billion in run-rate EBITDA by around 2030 (approximately $260 million in 2025), with each additional MKII floating LNG vessel contributing approximately $400 million in EBITDA. A commercial contract for the fourth vessel is expected to be signed soon, and the ongoing strategic review may include a sale, representing an undervalued option.

Theme Three: Refining Sector Still Has Upside, Favoring Niche Market Leaders

HF Sinclair (DINO.US) has surged 151% this year, yet the firm still provides a six-month target price of $142, implying total return of approximately 25%. The rationale is its deep presence in the Rocky Mountain and Mid-Continent niche markets, stable profitability in non-refining businesses, expected free cash flow yields of approximately 11% and 6% in 2027/2028, and additional option value from changes to the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) rules. The firm believes recent market concerns about the CEO transition and falling refining margins provide an entry window.

Theme Four: Sentiment-Driven Mispricing in Natural Gas Midstream and Upstream, Quality Names Present Entry Points

TC Energy (TRP.US) has a latest target price of $71. The stock has fallen 9% over the past three months (while the midstream index declined only 2% over the same period). The firm believes its U.S. natural gas pipeline projects and Ontario nuclear power assets are undervalued, with potential upside to its approximately 6% EBITDA compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2032. There remains C$6 billion to C$11 billion in capital expenditure space awaiting approval before 2030. The current stock price corresponds to a 13x forward price-to-earnings ratio, below the peer average of approximately 16x, with a dividend yield of approximately 4.5%.

Antero Resources (AR.US) has a latest target price of $46. The company plans to reduce cash costs from $2.70 per thousand cubic feet equivalent in 2025 to $2.00 by the end of 2028. Terminating high-priced transportation agreements could bring approximately $300 million in margin improvement, potentially expanding to $600 million-$700 million in subsequent years. Its 14% free cash flow yield is well above the 9% for Appalachian peers, and it is in discussions with power and data center customers for multi-year gas supply agreements.