Zhitong Finance APP has learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that investors can lean moderately bullish after the holiday, with a turning point in U.S. Treasury yields being the core condition for further increasing positions.
1) For offensive directions, continue to focus on technology, domestic semiconductor equipment, the CSI 2000, and some non-ferrous metals. If U.S.-Iran negotiations make a breakthrough and long-end U.S. Treasury yields clearly decline, positions in technology and small- and mid-cap stocks can be further increased.
2) Keep energy security assets such as power equipment, energy chemicals, and oil shipping in the portfolio. If tensions ease and transportation costs fall, hedging positions can be appropriately reduced during rebounds; if disruptions in the strait continue, these directions will still serve as tail-risk protection. 3) The capital flows into medical devices deserve attention. Real estate and building materials mainly trade on policy expectations, and exposure should remain restrained. Whether the post-holiday rebound can evolve into a larger rally should be judged by whether U.S. Treasury yields, tech ETF absorption, and the return of institutional funds can improve in sync.
Holding positions through the holiday was validated in overseas markets, and the height of the A-share rebound depends on the U.S. Treasury turning point
The judgment to hold positions through the holiday was validated in overseas markets, but A-share technology performed weaker than expected before the holiday. During the holiday, the Nasdaq hit another record high, Japanese and South Korean markets were generally strong, and Hong Kong stocks were basically stable compared with before the holiday; A-share technology continued to adjust before the holiday, with rising long-end U.S. Treasury yields as the main pressure. After the holiday, capital return and oversold repair are expected to drive a market rebound, but whether the rebound can escalate into a larger rally depends on whether U.S. Treasury yields can show a major turning point.
The pre-holiday capital structure already provided bottom signals. ETFs related to the STAR 50 and ChiNext received relatively large absorption during the decline, turnover fell to a stage low, and the most urgent selling pressure clearly weakened; at the same time, institutional funds were still flowing out, and leverage deleveraging only slowed. This contrast shows that the market has the foundation for a rebound, while the funding conditions for a sustained main uptrend still need confirmation. In the week after the holiday, investors should simultaneously watch tech ETF absorption, institutional fund returns, and U.S. Treasury yields, with the latter still the core variable determining the height of the rebound.
The core pressure from rising U.S. Treasury yields comes from the hidden costs of Middle East conflict, with debt and AI capital expenditure acting as amplifiers
Relatively stable oil prices have not eliminated the real costs of obstruction in the strait. Warship escorts, detours, and high-risk transportation have restored part of crude oil flows, at the cost of sharply higher freight rates, insurance premiums, and export discounts for oil-producing countries. The transportation segment has gained excess returns, while fiscal revenue of Gulf countries and profits across the crude oil industrial chain have been squeezed; chemicals and key raw materials, in turn, cannot easily replicate the high-priced rush shipping of crude oil, and the global supply chain still faces gaps. Fiscal pressure in Gulf countries, as well as inflation and exchange rate pressure in Europe, Japan, and South Korea, may all translate into bond selling and reductions in U.S. Treasury holdings. This explains the divergence in which oil prices have not spiraled out of control, yet U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise.
Existing debt and AI capital expenditure further amplify the interest rate shock. Global debt rollovers, security and military spending, and manufacturing expansion continue to compete for funds; in an environment of high interest rates and blocked supply chains, every large AI investment and new borrowing may push up the price of funds and in turn worsen the company's own financing burden. AI capital expenditure still supports industry prosperity, but financing methods have already become a transmission channel for valuation and credit risk. Sharply cutting welfare and existing debt, or completely halting AI investment, both lack a realistic basis. The more feasible path to ease interest rate pressure remains a cooling of the U.S.-Iran situation and the restoration of low-cost passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
October enters a key window, the U.S.-Iran path determines the turning point, and AI and domestic policy provide bottom support
October is a sensitive window for changes in U.S.-Iran policy. Oil prices, diesel prices, housing loan rates, and long-end U.S. Treasuries are affecting American voters' perceptions more broadly, and intensive election activities will accelerate policy feedback. Recent communication signals show that both sides have begun to avoid the most difficult issues, such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and are leaving room for a partial agreement; the week after the Camp David meeting is a key window for judging whether Trump will truly adjust his stance. The baseline scenario is that a partial arrangement is formed before the election, with oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields falling in sync; the risk scenario is that the agreement continues to be delayed, and military and policy disruptions first push rates up another step. If domestic political constraints in the United States strengthen after the election, the sustainability of war spending and foreign policy will also decline, and the U.S. Treasury turning point may be postponed until after the election or the early term of the new Congress.
The global AI cycle is still in an upward phase, but it is more sensitive to interest rates. During the holiday, the Nasdaq hit a new high, model company revenue continued to improve, and a new generation of models entered a period of intensive releases, indicating that AI bears have not yet regained dominance. Industry fundamentals can explain why technology has a bottom, while U.S. Treasury yields determine whether valuations can expand. Going forward, it is necessary to track model company revenue, capital expenditure financing methods, and long-end rates at the same time; together, these three will determine the slope of the global technology rally.
Domestic policy presents a weak reality and strong expectations. High-frequency data during the holiday were weak, and real estate interest subsidies reflected fiscal support for the first time, but the applicable conditions and intensity remain fairly restrained, continuing the "pragmatic and useful" policy orientation. Future policy will continue to target weak links in investment, consumption, and real estate, but given constraints from fiscal space, global interest rates, and imported inflation, the actual policy intensity is expected to remain relatively restrained. However, it cannot be ruled out that the market, influenced by foreign media and other factors, may see a temporary "policy shift expectation." Therefore, real estate, building materials, and similar sectors are more suitable as thematic trading opportunities.