Maersk is carrying out an aggressive vessel acquisition program, marking a complete about-face in its strategic thinking, aimed at preventing CMA CGM from overtaking it as the world's second-largest container shipping company.

Data from shipping data platform Alphaliner shows that the Danish company placed orders for 26 ships in September, each capable of carrying 18,600 TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), bringing its total orderbook to 131 vessels. This decision marks a major shift in Maersk's strategy. For most of the past decade, Maersk had been expanding its "port-to-door end-to-end" logistics business; now, as competitors use the hefty profits from soaring freight rates to expand their fleets, Maersk has been forced to keep pace. CEO Vincent Clerc said in September that the Danish blue-chip company "needs more ships" to cope with persistent trade disruptions, and that Maersk would adopt a "more proactive and aggressive" posture in the market. Christian Richly, Chief Operating Officer of Norwegian shipowner MPC Container Ships, said: "Comparing the current orderbook with fleet size, the industry's competitive focus is squarely between second and third place."

Maersk's new vessels will be delivered between 2029 and 2030, after which its total fleet will reach 882 ships, increasing its existing total deadweight tonnage by 16%. However, this new batch of orders will hardly narrow the gap with larger rival Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC). Alphaliner data shows that MSC overtook Maersk in 2022 to become the world's largest, and currently operates 1,015 vessels. CMA CGM is also in hot pursuit. This French family-owned company nearly went bankrupt during the 2008 financial crisis, but has expanded rapidly in recent years and holds orders for 160 new ships. If existing fleets and new orders are combined, its total size has now surpassed Maersk. Last month, a brand-new 400-meter-long CMA CGM container ship docked at a UK port for the first time, and Nicole Chamard, the company's Vice President for Asia-Europe routes, said at the event that CMA CGM will become the world's second-largest container shipping company next year, calling it an "established fact." Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at maritime research firm Xeneta, said: "CMA CGM has always been a player chasing the industry leaders."

From the COVID-19 pandemic to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, unprecedented trade disruptions have continued to drive up shipping profits, and major container shipping companies have used this capital to buy large numbers of ships. Trade disruptions have pushed up freight rates while also lengthening vessel voyage distances. Shipping companies have collectively set record-high order volumes, betting that geopolitical conflicts, tariffs, and extreme weather will continue to support the shipping boom cycle. Maersk has already raised its profit forecast twice this year, after initially expecting a loss. Since the pandemic, Maersk's fleet size has expanded by about one-fifth. But over the past decade, it chose a different path from its competitors: building a full-chain logistics business from factories to end consumers. That strategy was originally intended to hedge against the cyclical swings of the container shipping industry, but the company has now changed tack, betting that freight rates will remain elevated for longer. Clerc said that between 2000 and 2020, the industry's boom-and-bust cycle characteristics produced roughly symmetric profits and losses. But he said that various disruptions such as port congestion have now created a "natural floor" for freight rates, with "profit levels far higher than before," and he expects average returns to remain high.

CMA CGM and other shipping companies are also expanding their fleets in preparation for the expiration of vessel-sharing alliances. Shipping companies, including Maersk, have historically relied on such alliances to provide more routes and port calls than they could cover with their own ships alone. CMA CGM is expanding its fleet ahead of the expiration in 2032 of its alliance with COSCO Shipping, Taiwan's Evergreen, and Hong Kong's Orient Overseas. COSCO Shipping also holds orders for 155 new ships, equivalent to a 52% increase over its existing fleet size. Richly said: "CMA CGM and COSCO Shipping have ordered far more ships than Maersk, but now they too say they need more vessels."

Meanwhile, Hapag-Lloyd, which is in the same alliance as Maersk, agreed to acquire Israeli rival Zim Shipping for $4.2 billion, which will expand its fleet to more than 400 ships after the deal is completed. During the pandemic shipping boom, MSC aggressively purchased new and secondhand ships, vaulting to become the world's largest shipping company and ending its alliance with Maersk in 2015. Lars Jensen, CEO of consultancy Vespucci Maritime, said: "All other shipping companies must plan ahead for the 2030s. Should they start expanding and develop independently?" But he added that the shipping industry is a zero-sum game, and it is impossible for all companies to expand to the same massive scale.

Maersk's new ships will belong to the larger vessel types in its fleet. Following its peers, the company hopes to rely on economies of scale to reduce costs. Executives say that the larger and more energy-efficient the container ships operated, the lower the freight rates they can offer, with fuel costs accounting for as much as two-thirds of total costs. Richly said: "When ship tonnage doubles, unit costs fall by about 25% — that is the underlying logic behind everyone's fleet expansion." But Maersk deliberately did not order the largest container ships on the market. CMA CGM's 10 new vessels are larger, capable of carrying 24,212 TEU, including the "Notre-Dame de Paris," a liquefied natural gas-powered ship that is currently the largest container ship operating under the French flag. When Maersk announced orders for eight 366-meter-long vessels in February, it said that compared with the largest ships currently under construction, these vessels are "more flexible" and offer diverse deployment options across its existing and future global network. The world's largest container ships are about 400 meters long and too large to dock at all ports. Some executives worry that continued fleet expansion will cause overcapacity. Excessive vessel supply would depress freight rates, and container shipping companies could face huge losses; however, many shipping executives believe the risk can be hedged by slowing down or idling ships. Jensen said: "Vincent Clerc is very optimistic that there will be no overcapacity, capacity will remain tight, and shipping companies can manage a massive orderbook. But I am skeptical."