Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating it remains bullish on the current memory super-cycle, with high AI demand prosperity, strengthened supply constraints, long-term agreements locking in profits, and improved shareholder returns jointly driving the profit center upward.

On the demand side, AI training is accelerating toward inference and Agentic AI, which not only continues to drive HBM demand but also significantly boosts server DRAM and enterprise SSD configuration demand, with memory demand spreading from single HBM to broader data center storage; meanwhile, constraints in advanced processes, packaging and testing, and capacity switching keep supply expansion relatively limited, and DRAM and NAND prices are still expected to continue rising from a high base, with price increase sustainability notably stronger than traditional cycles.

On the supply side, leading memory manufacturers are locking in future procurement volumes and price ranges for the coming years through LTA/SCA agreements in advance, with Micron already having over 35% of its pre-2030 revenue covered by long-term agreements, significantly enhancing industry profit visibility.

Supported by strong profits and free cash flow, memory manufacturers' shareholder returns are also improving in tandem, with Micron explicitly stating it will return 100% of excess cash to shareholders over the long term.

The bank believes AI is driving the memory industry to re-rate from a strong cycle toward "high prosperity + high certainty + high shareholder returns," and it is currently in a phase of upward revision of super-cycle profit expectations, remaining bullish on the memory supply chain.

Recommended focus: 1) AI chips NVDA, AVGO, MRVL, CBRS; 2) memory MU, SNDK, Samsung, SK Hynix, Kioxia; 3) MLCC Samsung Electro-Mechanics, Murata Manufacturing, Taiyo Yuden; 4) substrates IBIDEN; 5) CPUs INTC, AMD, ARM, Qualcomm.

Key views of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows:

TrendForce expects AI server demand to support continued increases in memory contract prices in 26Q4. TrendForce stated that in 26Q4, DRAM suppliers will still prioritize allocating advanced process capacity to high-performance server products, and the overall DRAM market will remain in short supply, but the pace of contract price increases is expected to slow somewhat, with traditional DRAM prices expected to rise 10–15% quarter-on-quarter. The NAND Flash market shows a divergent pattern of accelerating AI demand and weak consumer demand, with prices across all segments still generally rising, and overall NAND Flash contract prices expected to increase 15–20% quarter-on-quarter.

Overseas tech companies update

Micron released its FY26Q4 financial results, with revenue, gross margin, and EPS all exceeding previous guidance. FY26Q4 revenue was $54.2 billion, up 379% year-on-year and 31% quarter-on-quarter; Non-GAAP EPS was $33.42, up 33% quarter-on-quarter; Non-GAAP gross margin was 87%, up 2.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. DRAM and NAND both saw simultaneous increases in volume and price. DRAM revenue was $39.8 billion, up 27% quarter-on-quarter, with bit shipments up mid-single digits quarter-on-quarter and prices up about 20% quarter-on-quarter; NAND revenue was $14.1 billion, up 42% quarter-on-quarter, with bit shipments up about 10% quarter-on-quarter and prices up about 30% quarter-on-quarter. Data center SSD revenue was about $10 billion, accounting for more than two-thirds of NAND revenue. HBM quarterly revenue growth outpaced the company overall, and the vast majority of 2027 HBM bit supply has already been contracted, with prices significantly higher year-on-year. FY27Q1 revenue and EPS are expected to continue growing, with gross margin expected to be the low point for the year. The company guided revenue of $61.5 billion ± $1.5 billion, with the midpoint up about 13.4% quarter-on-quarter; Non-GAAP EPS of $38.15 ± $1, with the midpoint up about 14.2% quarter-on-quarter; Non-GAAP gross margin of about 86.25%, down 0.75 percentage points quarter-on-quarter.

Contract scale continues to expand, with forward sales volumes and price floors becoming clearer. The company has signed 26 SCA long-term agreements, expected to cover more than 35% of revenue through 2030; about three-quarters of the expected agreement revenue already has a clear price framework, with most having price floors and ceilings. Customer financial commitments reached $32 billion, the vast majority of which are cash deposits. Therefore, even if executed at contract floor prices, margins will still be significantly higher than previous cycle peaks; at the same time, negotiations on pricing for newly added long-term agreements are proceeding at higher price levels. Management plans to increase capital return efforts starting December 9, and expects the cash balance to approach the target level by the end of FY27Q1, after which excess cash will mainly be returned through buybacks, and it plans to apply for additional buyback authorization. The long-term goal is to return 100% of excess cash to shareholders.

AMD will acquire World Labs to advance next-generation AI computing. On September 28, 2026, AMD announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire World Labs, an artificial intelligence model and research laboratory led by AI pioneer Dr. Fei-Fei Li. The acquisition will bring a world-class team of AI researchers and model experts to AMD, further enhancing AMD's ability to develop AI hardware, software, and systems around emerging AI model and application needs. The transaction will be all-stock, valued at approximately $8.2 billion, and is expected to close before the end of 2026, subject to regulatory approval and other customary closing conditions.

Risk warnings: AI development falling short of expectations; AI commercialization falling short of expectations; macroeconomic growth falling short of expectations, etc.