Global trade showed stronger-than-expected resilience in the first half of 2026. On the 8th, the World Trade Organization (WTO) released its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, forecasting that goods trade volume will grow 3.9% in 2026, far above the 1.9% predicted in March, with growth reaching 4.1% in 2027.

The WTO explained that despite disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, global trade displayed greater-than-expected resilience in the first half of 2026, thanks to the adaptability of supply chains and the strong boost to goods trade from heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI).

However, this resilience was not universal, as services trade and certain regions were more significantly affected by the conflict. As a result, WTO economists raised their 2026 growth forecast for goods trade while lowering their growth expectation for services trade.

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said: "These figures reflect the resilience of trade. When disruptions occur, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system give economies the flexibility to ensure that critical products continue to flow to the businesses and households that need them. However, the degree of impact varies across economies, and not everyone can seize emerging opportunities such as AI. We must ensure that the rules-based trading system continues to play its role as a buffer and a bridge for gaps, so that everyone can share in the opportunities."

The driving forces behind growth in the first half of 2026. As noted above, the WTO raised its forecast for goods trade growth this year. This move reflects that global supply chains have adapted to fluctuations in energy and fertilizer markets, while heavy investment in AI-related infrastructure has also boosted trade in AI-enabled products.

Specifically, WTO data show that despite disruption from the Middle East conflict, goods trade volume still grew 3.5% in the first half of 2026, exceeding expectations. Although crude oil exports from the Middle East fell by about 24% and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports dropped 47% in the first half of 2026, increased shipments from other suppliers eased the overall decline, keeping the global drop in crude oil exports to around 6% and the decline in LNG exports to only 1%.

At the same time, the fertilizer market also adjusted after severe disruptions: as alternative suppliers stepped in, global nitrogen fertilizer imports were only 2.8% below recent average levels, while phosphate fertilizer imports rose 2.2%. Meanwhile, trade flows were redirected through alternative ports and routes. Global container throughput remained steady, rising 3.9% year-to-date through July.

Strong demand related to AI investment also offset the negative effects of the Middle East conflict. Demand for AI-supporting products such as semiconductors and servers contributed 47% of the increase in global goods trade in the first half of 2026; trade in such products grew 67% year-on-year, exceeding the pace in 2024 and 2025.

In services trade, commercial services trade grew 14% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 and 10% in the second quarter, by value. The slowdown in the second quarter was due to the Middle East conflict disrupting transport and travel services, two sectors that rely heavily on the region's role as a global hub. At the same time, transport services were affected by route restructuring and sharp increases in freight rates; overseas travel spending in the second quarter rose only 5% year-on-year, down from 15% in the first quarter.

According to data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization, international tourist arrivals fell 0.8% in the second quarter and rose only 0.4% in the first half overall, reflecting a contraction in international tourist numbers. Despite these headwinds, other commercial services, especially those delivered digitally, remained relatively resilient and continued to support overall growth in services trade. As one of the fastest-growing areas of services trade, computer services exports grew 18% year-on-year in the first quarter and were expected to grow 12% in the second quarter, helping to offset weakness in transport and travel services. Financial services exports also grew, rising 14% year-on-year in the second quarter.

AI-related investment remains the main driver going forward. Given stronger-than-expected goods trade growth in the first half of 2026, WTO economists now expect global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.6% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027.

The WTO also believes that AI-related investment is expected to remain the main driver of goods trade through 2027. Global AI infrastructure spending is projected to grow at least 30% in 2026. Current market forecasts suggest AI capital expenditure will continue to grow by 10% to 20% in 2027.

The Middle East conflict is expected to weigh on trade in 2026 by pushing up energy prices and disrupting transport routes. At the same time, regional trade prospects remain uneven. In 2026, Asia's goods export growth is expected to be the highest (9.9%), followed by North America (5.7%), Africa (5.6%) and South America (3.4%). Europe's export performance is expected to remain weak (-0.1%), while the Middle East's exports are projected to shrink sharply (-17.2%), reflecting the impact of the ongoing conflict and related disruptions to trade flows.

On the import side, regions such as Asia (9.5%) and Africa (8.9%) are expected to see the strongest growth; by contrast, growth in North America (1.4%) and Europe (0.5%) may be more moderate, while the Middle East is expected to post a sharp decline (-15.4%).

In services trade, although the Middle East conflict has affected transport and international travel and slowed the growth outlook, commercial services trade is still expected to remain in positive territory. The WTO expects services trade volume to grow 3.3% in 2026 (below the 4.8% forecast in March) and 6.4% in 2027.

WTO economists now expect only modest growth in global transport and travel services this year, reflecting factors such as higher energy costs, blocked shipping and aviation routes, and reduced demand for international travel. By contrast, other commercial services, including digitally delivered services, are expected to remain more resilient and continue to drive overall growth in services trade.

Services trade prospects vary significantly across regions. In 2026, Europe's services exports are expected to grow the fastest at 4.6%, followed by Asia (4.0%) and Africa (3.1%). Growth in North America is expected to be more moderate at 1.7%. Affected by the ongoing conflict, the Middle East's services exports are projected to shrink 10.3%. Europe is expected to contribute more than half of global services export growth this year, helping to offset the impact of weaker growth in Asia, North America and the Middle East.