The artificial intelligence industry is bracing for a major incident that could reshape the regulatory landscape.

According to a recent Axios report, executives at companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI are privately war-gaming how American society and the political world would react if AI causes serious real-world harm.

These exercises focus on extreme scenarios such as large-scale cyberattacks, including disruptions to financial services, internet connectivity, and even power and water supply systems. Industry insiders worry that if a major incident caused by unsafe AI occurs, a public already wary of the technology could shift further toward opposition, and AI companies and their executives would face greater public pressure.

The report says multiple AI industry figures believe a major event could occur within the next 6 to 12 months. Executives have therefore begun communicating with U.S. lawmakers in advance, hoping to influence the laws and policies the U.S. government would formulate after a crisis actually unfolds.

AI Companies Fear a Major Incident Could Trigger Public Backlash

According to Axios, AI companies are assessing the political and social reactions that could follow a major incident. Relevant scenarios include out-of-control swarms of AI agents breaking through the limits of internal testing environments, or malicious actors using existing models to carry out attacks.

Companies worry that if AI causes serious real-world harm for the first time, a public already cautious about the technology could turn further against it.

Industry leaders such as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, as well as U.S. President Trump, who has been criticized for being unwilling to strengthen AI regulation, could all come under greater public pressure.

Companies Communicate Early to Prepare for Post-Incident Regulation

According to the report, AI companies are war-gaming worst-case scenarios through red-team testing while accelerating efforts to educate U.S. lawmakers about AI.

Executives believe the conditions for pushing regulatory legislation are currently limited, but a major incident could change the direction of the policy debate. They therefore hope to participate in relevant discussions early and influence the laws and policies the U.S. government might formulate at that time.

Some Democrats have proposed banning superintelligence or pausing advanced AI development. Other proposals have won bipartisan support and even endorsement from some industry figures, such as requiring advanced AI systems to have emergency shutdown switches. However, experts also question whether fully shutting down all AI systems would be feasible in practice.

At the same time, a large number of open-weight models can already be downloaded and used for free, adding to the complexity of risk governance. Many cybersecurity professionals believe that using AI to counter malicious AI is one way to address the problem.

Tighter Regulation Faces Real-World Constraints

Even if a major AI incident triggers a strong backlash, the U.S. government could face multiple constraints when formulating a response.

AI infrastructure buildout is already deeply intertwined with the global economy. Slowing related construction could deal a blow to an already fragile economy. This means that when considering tighter AI regulation, the government would also have to confront the related economic impact.

Political divisions are also a concern for companies. Some AI industry figures expect Democrats may push for stricter AI restrictions after the midterm elections, but even if Democrats control both the House and the Senate, internal party divisions could still affect the policy push.

Axios cited a Democratic aide as saying that when a real crisis occurs, the two parties in Washington may temporarily set aside their differences. The cooperation seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis is viewed as a possible reference.

At present, it remains uncertain whether a major AI incident will occur within the next 6 to 12 months. What is certain is that companies such as Anthropic and OpenAI have begun war-gaming policy scenarios after an incident and are trying to participate early in the relevant regulatory discussions.