On Friday, fresh data regarding OpenAI's revenue provided breathing room for markets, easing selling pressure that had been triggered by doubts over returns on AI spending. Iron ore prices extended their decline, heading for a third straight weekly loss; meanwhile, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, lifting gold and silver prices, with spot gold breaking through the $4,200 mark.

Asian stock markets rose 0.3% overall, while European equity index futures also pointed to a higher open. In U.S. equity futures, S&P 500 futures gained 0.3% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%, after Bloomberg learned that OpenAI expects annualized revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion this year, addressing earlier skepticism that annualized revenue was only around $50 billion, while also lifting the pessimistic sentiment previously triggered by AI revenue data.

Spot gold rose more than 1.6% during the day to around $4,200 per ounce, while spot silver gained 2.0% to $60.36 per ounce. The strength in precious metals was mainly driven by long-dated U.S. Treasury yields retreating from multi-decade highs. Brent crude fell 1.2% to $102.95 per barrel, after Trump stated that the U.S. would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections.

Josh Gilbert, Chief Analyst for Asia-Pacific at eToro, said, "The AI trade has experienced several weeks of turbulence, and combined with U.S. Treasury yields at multi-year highs, investor risk appetite has cooled somewhat. The upcoming earnings season over the next few weeks will be a major test, as those companies that have invested the most capital in AI will tell the market whether they are still willing to keep doubling down."

The Nikkei 225 index was essentially flat compared with the previous day, while South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.

S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.5%.

The dollar spot index fell 0.1%.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 5.22%.

The Japanese 10-year government bond yield fell 5.5 basis points to 3.025%.

Spot gold rose more than 1.6% during the day to around $4,200 per ounce, while spot silver gained 2.0% to $60.36 per ounce.

Brent crude fell 1.2% to $102.95 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3% to $90.27 per barrel.

Iron Ore: Supply Expansion and Weak Demand Add to Bearish Signals

Iron ore prices remained under pressure. Singapore iron ore futures fell as much as 0.9% during Friday's session, touching their lowest level since September 2024 at $90.90 per ton; Dalian iron ore futures also hovered near two-year lows. Over the past three weeks, iron ore prices have closed higher on only one trading day.

Analysts at Yongan Futures noted in a research report this week that the pricing logic for iron ore is shifting from the previous combination of "high hot metal output plus freight cost support" toward a market dominated by supply growth, weakening demand, and inventory accumulation, with a bearish outlook for the fourth quarter. David Cachot, Director of Iron Ore Research at Wood Mackenzie, pointed out that Guinea's exports are accelerating alongside expanded transshipment capacity, further intensifying the global supply surplus.

Demand-side conditions have not yet shown significant deterioration. Mysteel data show that average daily pig iron output has remained basically stable at 2.34 million tons. However, the proportion of profitable steel mills is currently below 7%, and persistently weak profit margins could ultimately force larger-scale production cuts, thereby squeezing iron ore consumption.

Coking coal costs are also adding pressure. Dalian coking coal futures surged 4.2% on Friday to 1,538.5 yuan per ton. Morgan Stanley analysts said in an October 6 research report that elevated fuel costs are further compressing steel mill profits, but if this leads to output cuts, it may provide some support to steel prices in the near term. Shanghai rebar futures edged higher on Friday.

AI Revenue Data Fluctuates, Tech Stock Sentiment Remains Fragile

After a sharp selloff on Thursday, tech stocks recovered part of their losses on Friday following OpenAI's latest data. Earlier, the Financial Times reported that OpenAI's annualized revenue was about $20 billion below prior expectations, causing the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to fall 3.4% in a single day, with the tech sector leading declines in the S&P 500.

According to Bloomberg, OpenAI disclosed the latest revenue forecast to investors, with the information coming from people familiar with discussions related to the company's latest funding round. Notably, companies do not all use the same methodology for calculating annualized revenue. Bloomberg previously reported that Anthropic's annualized revenue had reached $65 billion by the end of July.

Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television that over the past 18 months, waves of AI-related "negative news" have repeatedly emerged, usually subsiding within days before the market returns to optimism, but "these waves are becoming more frequent, and their impact on investor sentiment is accumulating, which is a warning signal worth heeding."

The combination of high capital expenditure and high borrowing costs is increasingly bringing the justification for data center and computing infrastructure investment under scrutiny. The earnings season set to begin next week will be a key testing point, with investors focusing on whether revenue and profit growth at relevant companies can keep pace with the capital required for developing and operating AI models.

Dollar Weakens, Japanese Bond Yields Retreat

In currency and bond markets, the Bloomberg dollar index edged lower, while expectations of easing Middle East tensions boosted Asian currencies broadly.

The Japanese 10-year government bond yield fell 5.5 basis points to 3.025%, while U.S. Treasuries extended gains from the previous trading day. The decline in long-dated yields provided support for non-interest-bearing assets such as gold and also somewhat eased market concerns that large-scale AI investment may be unsustainable in a high-interest-rate environment.