Major Indexes Open Lower as Oil Prices and Treasury Yields Climb Together

Deep News
Yesterday

Major stock indexes opened lower on Wednesday, weighed down by rising Treasury yields and oil prices, as investors stayed cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.65%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.44%, and the Nasdaq declined 0.62%.

Among the "Magnificent Seven," Apple gained 1.36%, Tesla slipped 0.09%, Microsoft fell 0.20%, Google lost 0.56%, Amazon dropped 0.60%, Meta Platforms declined 0.68%, and Nvidia fell 0.68%.

"Ironically, even as stocks keep hitting record highs, equity valuations have actually pulled back since January," said Nancy Tengler, CEO and chief investment officer of Laffer Tengler Investments. "I don't mind valuation compression at all. It actually suggests this bull market is sustainable and can run further. I like where we are in this bull market, and ultimately earnings growth is what drives stock performance."

Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Fed's latest September policy meeting. At that meeting, the U.S. central bank raised rates for the first time since 2023. The minutes are expected to shed light on how monetary policymakers view the current economic landscape.

Across the Atlantic, the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.8%, with major regional indexes broadly closing lower. The UK's FTSE 100 dropped 0.7%, France's CAC 40 fell 1%, Germany's DAX declined 1.3%, and Italy's FTSE MIB tumbled 1.9%.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 closed down 0.92%, while the Topix also fell 0.7%. South Korea's Kospi dropped nearly 2%, and the small-cap Kosdaq slid 2.34%. Australia's S&P 200 ended roughly flat. Mainland Chinese markets were closed for the National Day Golden Week holiday.

On Tuesday, tech stocks rallied on AI optimism and expectations of a strong third-quarter earnings season, pushing the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the benchmark S&P 500 to record closing highs. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average remained about 5% below its record closing high set on August 5.

But sentiment turned cautious on Wednesday as investors reassessed the interest rate outlook and energy costs. Brent crude returned above the psychologically important $100-a-barrel level amid persistent Middle East supply concerns.

"We're seeing some profit-taking today," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. "The market is highly focused on the Fed minutes, but ultimately, what's driving the broader market today is the move in oil prices and Treasury yields."

The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to its highest level since 2002, last at 5.72%. The Fed will release the minutes of its September policy meeting later in the day, a meeting at which policymakers raised rates to fight inflation.

"The Fed's rate hike is unlikely to slow the rapid buildout of AI infrastructure, where investment remains exceptionally strong," said Emre Hajiyeva, senior economist for global macro research at Invesco.

"Instead, tighter monetary policy is more likely to drag on traditional sectors of the economy, which are already showing signs of sensitivity to higher borrowing costs."

Meanwhile, the equal-weighted S&P 500 remains more than 5% below its record high, while the rate-sensitive Russell 2000 small-cap index is down more than 8% from its all-time peak. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders widely expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its October meeting, though a December hike remains possible.

Chip stocks led the declines. Memory chip maker Micron Technology fell 2.8%, while AMD, Broadcom, and Marvell Technology dropped between 1.3% and 2.1%. Elon Musk's SpaceX fell 1.6%. The company, which spans space rockets and AI businesses, plans to raise $40 billion to purchase Nvidia chips. Corona beer maker Constellation Brands cut its full-year operating margin forecast, sending shares down 3.8%.

Next week, the third-quarter earnings season kicks off, and market focus may shift to the performance of U.S. companies, with several major financial institutions set to report on Tuesday. According to LSEG data, analysts currently expect S&P 500 companies to post overall earnings growth of 30.6% for the July-September period: energy sector earnings are projected to surge 114.7%, while tech sector earnings are estimated to jump 66.5%, driving the overall increase.

Although 30% profit growth is lower than the second quarter, when S&P 500 company earnings soared 54%, investors expect a broadly positive earnings season to support stocks at record highs. On the earnings-driven front, AI data center infrastructure provider Penguin Solutions raised its full-year revenue forecast and reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, sending its shares up 4.3%.

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