Abstract

ASML Holding NV will report third-quarter results on October 14, 2026 Pre-MKt; this preview consolidates recent financial data, current-quarter forecasts, and analyst commentary to frame revenue, margin, and EPS expectations alongside key business drivers.

Market Forecast

Market expectations for the current quarter point to revenue of 11.51 billion US dollars, EBIT of 4.77 billion US dollars, and EPS of 10.50, implying year-over-year growth of 45.74% for revenue, 87.05% for EBIT, and 87.01% for EPS; gross margin is expected to expand and net profitability to rise versus last year. The main business is projected to be led by system sales with the strongest momentum, while services revenue continues to provide a stable, higher-margin base; the most promising segment remains advanced lithography systems, which is guided for a significant year-over-year uplift in shipments and ASPs.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, ASML Holding NV reported revenue of 9.33 billion US dollars, a gross profit margin of 53.99%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.92 billion US dollars with a net profit margin of 31.28%, and adjusted EPS of 7.58, with revenue growing 21.25% year over year. A key highlight was the outperformance versus estimates on both revenue and earnings, reflecting a richer mix of advanced systems and strong services attachment. Main business performance was anchored by system sales at 6.56 billion US dollars and net service and field options at 2.76 billion US dollars, underscoring resilient installed-base monetization.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business trajectory and demand balance

System sales are the primary driver of quarterly variability, and the guidance implies a sequential step-up consistent with ramping shipments into both logic and memory end-markets. Mix should continue to skew toward advanced DUV and EUV platforms, supporting a favorable pricing environment and scale efficiencies in manufacturing. Services revenue should remain stable given the expanding installed base, sustaining utilization at mature nodes and providing recurring cash flow that smooths quarter-to-quarter volatility.

Most promising business and shipment cadence

Advanced lithography systems remain the center of growth, with the forecast indicating a pronounced year-over-year increase in units and value as customers progress on leading-edge roadmaps. EUV demand is expected to benefit from ongoing 3 nm and 2 nm node conversions and broader adoption at multiple foundries, while advanced DUV stays elevated on backfill capacity and specialty logic. Execution on delivery schedules and factory output is pivotal this quarter; on-time shipment and installation milestones are likely to be a key determinant of revenue recognition and margin leverage.

Stock price sensitivities for this print

The stock is likely to react to any deltas versus the revenue and EPS forecasts, but commentary on lead times, supply-chain bottlenecks, and the order intake trajectory for the next two quarters could be more influential. Gross margin color, including contribution from high-ASP systems and the density of service contracts, will shape expectations for next year’s earnings power. Any updates to customer capex intentions in logic and memory, as well as visibility on advanced tool shipments, could reset the near-term multiple higher or lower.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews, the majority of analysts maintain a positive stance into the print, highlighting stronger shipments and margin expansion from advanced systems; bullish views outnumber cautious ones by a wide margin. Prominent broker commentary emphasizes the favorable setup from higher EUV mix, resilient services, and improving operating leverage, indicating confidence in meeting or exceeding revenue and EPS forecasts for the quarter. The consensus expectation stresses monitoring bookings and outlook for subsequent quarters as the decisive factor for sustaining valuation momentum.