Citi has released a research report stating that it expects AIA (01299) to announce its operating data for the third quarter of this year on October 30. The bank forecasts that overall value of new business will slightly contract by 2.6% year-on-year at constant exchange rates in the third quarter, and is expected to decline by 2% year-on-year at actual exchange rates, mainly due to the very high base in the same period last year and the impact on China's bancassurance channel from regulatory changes. The bank maintains a Buy rating on AIA with a target price of HK$103.

Citi noted that AIA's value of new business surged 25% year-on-year at constant exchange rates in the third quarter of last year. However, the bank expects the base effect to normalize in the fourth quarter and resume steady growth, and remains positive on the company's medium-term outlook, benefiting from operational resilience, sustainable growth, and gradual improvement in operating profit after tax per share and dividends.

By market, the bank expects AIA's Hong Kong value of new business to be flat year-on-year at constant exchange rates in the third quarter; mainland China to contract 20% year-on-year at constant exchange rates and decline 15% year-on-year at actual exchange rates; Thailand to be roughly flat year-on-year at constant exchange rates and decline 3% year-on-year at actual exchange rates. Singapore and Malaysia are each expected to grow 10% year-on-year at constant exchange rates; other markets are expected to grow 7% year-on-year at constant exchange rates.