Gold May Be Poised for Explosive Move as US-Iran Tensions Ease and Oil Prices Retreat

Deep News
3 hours ago

Spot gold: On October 9, gold in the morning session overall showed a pattern of correction from oversold conditions with range-bound strength.

In the Asian morning session, spot gold traded around $4,135—$4,145 per ounce, London spot gold was referenced at about $4,139 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures closed at $4,158.3 per ounce, up 0.43%.

In the prior trading day, gold rebounded from lows, short-side momentum weakened somewhat, and market sentiment improved. The US dollar index and long-end US Treasury yields fluctuated at high levels but did not continue to strongly suppress gold, giving gold room to breathe.

Global central banks continued to buy gold, and China's central bank gold reserves reached 77.47 million ounces by the end of September, increasing holdings for 23 consecutive months, which still supports the bottom of gold prices.

However, upside pressure remains. The Federal Reserve's policy path is still uncertain, expectations for a December rate hike persist, and the high-rate environment continues to weaken the appeal of non-yielding assets.

Overall, gold was slightly stronger in the morning short term, but pressure around $4,146—$4,163 is clearly evident. In terms of operations, range trading remains the main approach; buying near support and trying shorts near resistance is more prudent. Without a clear breakout signal, it is not advisable to chase gains with heavy positions.

Key levels: Resistance: 4184, 4225. Support: 4128, 4105. Entry points/ranges: aggressive short at 4175±5, conservative short at 4220±5, target 4100 and hold if broken. Aggressive long at 4125±5, conservative long at 4110±5, target 4170 and hold if broken. GOLD watershed: $4,128 per ounce. Note: The above views are for reference only. In extreme market conditions, strictly control risk.

WTI crude oil: Overnight in the US session, crude oil rose strongly, with geopolitical risk premium combined with production shutdowns from a Gulf of Mexico hurricane driving a jump in oil prices.

WTI front-month closed at $91.49 per barrel, up $3.21, or 3.64%; Brent front-month closed at $104.28 per barrel, up $4.08, or 4.07%. During the session, WTI briefly broke above $92, while Brent touched a high near $105.88.

In the Asian morning session, prices fluctuated at high levels, with WTI trading in the $91—$92 range and Brent holding above $104.

Currently, crude oil is in a high-level range-bound pattern dominated by geopolitical risk premium. WTI's main observation range is $90.5—$93.5, and Brent's main observation range is $102.0—$106.0.

In terms of operations, light longs relying on key support and trial shorts in resistance zones are more prudent. If Middle East news escalates further, watch for a rapid rise in oil prices; conversely, if the situation eases, profit-taking by longs may trigger a rapid pullback.

Key levels: Resistance: 92.0, 94.0. Support: 89.0, 87.0. Entry points/ranges: aggressive short at 92.0±0.2, conservative short at 93.4±0.2, target 89.0 and hold if broken. Aggressive long at 89.1±0.2, conservative long at 87.2±0.2, target 92.0 and hold if broken. WTI watershed: $90.5 per barrel. Note: The above views are for reference only. In extreme market conditions, strictly control risk.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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