The World Trade Organization said on October 8 that global merchandise trade is expected to grow 3.9% this year, nearly double its March forecast, as spending on expensive chips and other equipment used to produce artificial intelligence boosted cross-border trade.

The rapid growth in trade of AI products was enough to offset the drag on trade caused by the Middle East war and tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

In its latest global trade outlook report released on October 8, the WTO said that due to supply chain adjustments and strong investment in artificial intelligence, global merchandise trade is expected to grow 3.9% in 2026, up from the 1.9% forecast in March, and is expected to grow 4.1% in 2027.

WTO Deputy Director-General Johanna Hill said at a press conference that the resilience of the global economy and trade has been "a notable feature of the past six months." She said the Iran war led to higher energy prices and shipping disruptions, creating huge headwinds for businesses seeking to trade. However, companies and supply chains have adjusted, and energy and fertilizer producers in other regions have stepped in to make up for supply disruptions.

The organization's chief economist, Robert Staiger, said the conflict dealt a major blow to trade, especially in the Middle East. In the first half of 2026, Middle East crude oil exports fell 24% from the same period in 2025, while liquefied natural gas exports fell 47%. But he said the global trading system helped many countries weather the shock. Countries outside the region increased production and exports of energy and fertilizer to compensate for supply losses.

Staiger said global trade in 2026 is being shaped by two opposing forces: the impact of the Middle East conflict on services and merchandise trade, and an exceptionally strong wave of investment in AI infrastructure. So far, the latter force has outweighed the former. In the first half of 2026, trade in AI-related goods surged an astonishing 67%, accounting for about half of the growth in global merchandise trade during the same period. The WTO expects trade growth to pick up slightly next year to 4.1%.

The report also noted that global GDP is expected to grow 2.6% this year and 2.9% in 2027.

"These figures reflect trade resilience in action," WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said. "When disruption occurs, an integrated world economy and a rules-based trading system can provide flexibility for economies to ensure that essential goods continue to reach the businesses and families that need them."

Okonjo-Iweala also noted: "However, some are hit harder than others, and not everyone has access to emerging opportunities such as artificial intelligence."