Sharp Moves in Bond Yields Have Preceded Nearly Every Major Financial Meltdown

Deep News
4 hours ago

The danger posed by rising bond yields is not merely higher borrowing costs; the real threat lies in the chain reactions triggered when yields climb too far, too fast.

Strategists at Macquarie Bank point out that over the past fifty years, "almost every high-profile financial collapse" has occurred after sharp swings in bond yields.

"In other words, over the past 50 years, long-term bond yields have surged or plunged every few years; and whenever that happens, another financial institution or highly indebted entity blows up and collapses," Macquarie global strategists Thierry Wizman and Gareth Berry wrote in a Wednesday research note.

Data source: Bloomberg L.P., Macquarie Bank. Macquarie's research lists a number of "balance-sheet-driven mini-crises" that followed rapid yield swings, including the 1974 failure of Franklin National Bank, the 1994 municipal bankruptcy of Orange County, and the more recent collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.

That $200 billion institution failed in less than 48 hours after Federal Reserve rate hikes eroded the value of its long-term bond portfolio.

Treasury yields and bond prices move inversely, and the current surge in government bond yields is playing out globally.

According to data from Yardeni Research, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed to its highest level since 2002, benchmark yields in France, Italy, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea have all risen by at least 100 basis points since the start of the year.

Bond yields have risen across many countries worldwide.

Macquarie strategists believe there is a "direct and self-reinforcing causal relationship" between the street unrest in France over proposed budget cuts and pressure on that country's bond market.

Although bond yields also swung sharply before the 2008 financial crisis, the market expects strong corporate earnings combined with inflation-related factors to still support a gradual grind higher in stocks.

But that does not mean Wall Street strategists have stopped closely watching key thresholds for the 10-year Treasury yield.

Fundstrat economic strategist Hardika Singh recently said: "Historical data shows that after yields break above 5.5%, asset valuations begin to contract; from investors and companies to ordinary consumers, everyone must recalculate the return expectations on their investments."

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