According to reports, Shell (SHEL.US) Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan said on Tuesday that Middle East oil flows have recovered to roughly 80% of pre-war levels, a sign of the region's resilience in honoring its commitment to supply global markets.

Although several banks and shipping analysts also believe Middle East oil flows are approaching pre-conflict levels, Sawan's latest remarks provide one of the most authoritative assessments yet for gauging the pace of the region's export recovery.

Data from ship-tracking agency Kpler shows that Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait and Iran exported an average of nearly 16.33 million barrels of oil per day in September, about 3.2 million barrels fewer than the roughly 19.51 million barrels before the conflict broke out in February this year, recovering to about 80% of pre-war levels. Crude oil shipped by Middle Eastern producers through the Strait of Hormuz is estimated at nearly 9.72 million barrels per day, and this figure does not include vessels that switched off their automatic identification systems to evade detection.

JPMorgan's assessment is more optimistic. The bank's commodity analysts expect Middle East crude shipments to average about 17.5 million barrels per day in September, equivalent to 98% of pre-war levels, while exports of refined products such as diesel and gasoline are expected to reach about 3 million barrels per day, equivalent to 58% of pre-war levels. JPMorgan's team noted in its report that "the Middle East's oil export artery is flowing again," which represents a "fairly remarkable recovery" for a region still at war.

"People are once again recognizing that without energy security, there is no national security," Sawan said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London. "Without a solid energy strategy underpinning it, there can be no industrial strategy or economic strategy."

But Sawan also warned that the longer the war drags on, the harder it will be for the market to continue absorbing supply disruptions; although oil flows have rebounded, they have not yet returned to normal, and without weaker Chinese demand and higher output elsewhere, the supply tightness would have been even more severe.

"We may have cushioned the worst of the crisis, but this approach cannot continue indefinitely, otherwise there will be more supply disruptions," Sawan said.