Hot topic columns, self-selected stock lists, data centers, market quote centers, capital flow tracking, simulated trading client — Dadi Futures Research Institute viewpoint summary. Core view: The sustainability of Brent 90-110 Strait of Hormuz flows may be insufficient. Geopolitical intensity continues to escalate, and oil prices are trending upward amid volatility.

Geopolitical intensity continues to escalate. Since mid-to-late September, the frequency of tanker attacks in Middle Eastern waters has increased markedly, and Houthi attacks on Saudi pipelines and oilfields have also intensified. Significant disagreements remain between the US and Iran in disclosed information regarding negotiations — nuclear issues, the strait, and sanctions/economic compensation. The US continues to deploy military forces to the Middle East. The Roosevelt carrier group has already set sail and is expected to arrive in the Middle East by mid-November. Two "Patriot" air defense missile batteries have been deployed to Saudi Arabia and Qatar respectively. Strait flows may be reaching their ceiling. In the past two weeks, the weekly volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz has exceeded 10 million barrels per day, and combined with ship-to-ship transfers and alternative channels such as Fujairah and Yanbu, weekly flows have nearly reached pre-war levels. However, we believe sustainability is insufficient, mainly based on: 1. High-level loading is prioritizing the drawdown of onshore tank inventories, which have already fallen to low levels; 2. The volume of empty vessels entering the strait continues to decline; 3. Production capacity recovery in Gulf states has not yet kept pace with loading rates; 4. Freight rates have surged, and combined with spot discounts, this is approaching the upper limit of what buyers can absorb.

The IEA will continue releasing SPR over the next four months, with specific details to be announced around October 15. Diesel releases will account for the largest share, temporarily easing Europe's diesel tightness before winter, but drawing down inventories is not a long-term solution. Currently, US exports have reached their limit, China's exports still depend on policy, and the supplementary capacity of Russia and India remains limited. In the short term, the probability of further geopolitical escalation is relatively high. After supply reaches a bottleneck, it will tend toward tightness, and oil prices are more likely to rise than fall.

01. Escalation of the situation; Strait of Hormuz flows hit ceiling. Since September, the frequency of tanker attacks has increased. According to publicly available information, the number of tankers attacked in August was around 10, rising to around 15 in September, and about 7 incidents have occurred so far in October — a clear increase in attack frequency. The most concentrated area of attacks is the shipping lane on the Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz. Among the tankers attacked, those directly belonging to Middle Eastern countries include the UAE, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. In addition to VLCCs, ship-to-ship transfer vessels have also been involved. Data source: Dadi Futures Research Institute. Middle East weekly flows have nearly recovered to pre-war levels. The increase in Strait of Hormuz flows mainly comes from Saudi Arabia's transfer via the East-West pipeline. In the past two weeks, the average volume of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz reached 10 million barrels per day; the average volume via ship-to-ship transfer was around 2.5 million barrels per day. Iran's oil exports through observable channels remain at zero. East-West pipeline loadings have dropped to around 2 million. In the past two weeks, Red Sea exports have remained at around 2 million barrels per day, mainly completed through the Egyptian pipeline and the Suez detour. Can the flows be sustained? 1. From an inventory perspective, the active loading in the past two weeks has mainly consumed existing inventories, and onshore tank inventories in Gulf states have all fallen to low levels, weakening support for sustained loading. 2. The number of empty vessels entering the strait continues to decline, and ship-to-ship transfer vessels may have also reached their ceiling. 3. Currently, production does not appear to have fully kept up. 4. Freight rates have surged to historical extremes, and combined with spot discounts, they have nearly reached the profit breakeven line.

02. SPR release yet again. The IEA will release another 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. Over the next four months, the IEA plans to release a total of 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined products, with diesel to be released preferentially in the first 20 days. Details on the allocation by country and product type will be announced around October 15. The IEA will again release 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined products. The diesel SPR release has weakened European diesel cracks.

03. Structural data updates. With the IEA releasing SPR, monthly spreads have narrowed in backwardation. As of October 7, the TI front-to-second-month spread closed at 0.73, and the front-to-second-and-third spread closed at 0.71; Brent front-to-second-month closed at 2.75, and front-to-second-and-third closed at 2.18; SC front-to-second-month closed at 12. Refined product cracks continue to rise. Brent net longs have declined. In the week of September 29, Brent fund longs decreased by 20,167 lots, shorts increased by 13,091 lots, and net longs decreased by 33,258 lots. TI net longs have declined. In the week of September 29, TI fund longs decreased by 14,162 lots, shorts increased by 8,074 lots, and net longs decreased by 22,236 lots. Huang Wanzhe, Practicing Qualification No.: F3075583, Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0020508, Contact: huangwz@ddqh.com. Sina cooperative major platform — futures account opening, safe, fast, and secure.