Friday (October 9) saw the three major A-share indices stage a "bottom-out then rebound" session. According to Tonghuashun data, by the close the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to 3813.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 0.17% to 12641.86 points, and the ChiNext Index added 0.22% to 3043.33 points; combined turnover across the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing markets reached 1.92 trillion yuan, up 222.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Across the whole market, 3,297 stocks advanced while 2,145 declined, with 72 hitting the daily limit up and 10 hitting the limit down, as market sentiment showed marginal improvement on the final trading day of the first post-holiday week.

Looking at the Shenwan first-tier sectors, media, computer, commercial retail and non-ferrous metals all rose more than 2%, while defense and military, electronics and banking lagged at the bottom. The media sector as a whole climbed 5.28%, with Chinese Online and Mango Excellent Media hitting the "20cm" limit up, and Jilin TV & Media, Thinkingdom Media Group and Xinhua Media also sealing the limit up, as post-holiday content consumption and AI application themes converged to become the lever for bullish capital.

Analysts believe A-shares currently enjoy support from four positive factors that are helping to restore investment confidence, and October may usher in a "repair window after risk release."

First, fundamentals are steadily improving. Data released on September 30 by the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing showed the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 50.1% in September, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month and rising back into expansion territory. Among the 21 surveyed industries, 12 posted a PMI above the threshold, four more than the prior month, indicating a broadening of manufacturing prosperity. Caitong Securities said the September expansion was mainly driven by the production side and the rebound remains low by recent standards, but as growth-stabilization policies are implemented faster, the manufacturing PMI is expected to stay in expansion in the fourth quarter, while demand-side improvement still needs continued tracking.

Second, consumption data boost confidence. Recently, according to estimates by the Data Center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, during the seven-day National Day holiday, domestic trips reached 826 million and total domestic tourism spending hit 738.375 billion yuan, up 6.3% and 4.3% respectively on a comparable daily-average basis versus 2025. In addition, Beacon Professional Edition data showed the 2026 National Day box office (October 1 to October 7) closed at 1.164 billion yuan. The recovery in services consumption and offline scenarios provides prosperity verification for sectors such as commercial retail, media and cultural tourism.

Third, the dividend ecosystem continues to improve. Data from the China Association for Public Companies showed total A-share dividends for the 2025 fiscal year reached 2.4 trillion yuan, up 3.3% year on year; 3,067 A-share listed companies paid dividends for three consecutive years, with their proportion up 3 percentage points year on year; and another 2,235 companies paid dividends for five consecutive years, also up 3 percentage points. Strengthening sustained return capacity is raising the long-term valuation anchor for A-shares.

Fourth, capital has not left the market. Wind data showed that on October 8, equity ETFs recorded overall net inflows of 17.907 billion yuan, of which broad-based ETFs saw the largest net inflows at 10.997 billion yuan and thematic ETFs attracted significant net inflows of 6.965 billion yuan. Judging from fund flows in index-tracking ETFs, themes such as chips and semiconductors continued to be favored.

On the outlook, CITIC Securities believes the domestic fundamentals are broadly stable, with PMI expansion and improving holiday consumption providing support, though economic repair pressure remains; it expects greater policy intensity in the fourth quarter, with the market mainly oscillating and repairing. Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, told reporters: "There is an opportunity for risk appetite repair in the A-share market after the holiday, and it is advisable to seize structural opportunities. In terms of allocation, the AI industry trend is unchanged, and tech growth remains a medium- to long-term main line, but internal divergence is sharp—leaders with technical barriers and operational support will continue to improve, while high-valuation theme stocks with disappointing earnings face heavy adjustment pressure; pro-cyclical, high-dividend and previously oversold traditional sectors supported by policy may attract periodic attention before year-end."

"The post-holiday correction has already released risk, and risk appetite is expected to gradually recover in October. If overseas long-end rates fall and domestic third-quarter reports extend the bright performance of interim reports, the probability of a risk appetite rebound is high. On allocation, dual-innovation leaders that have fallen sufficiently but show strong earnings growth, commodity resource stocks that have corrected adequately, and non-bank financials all deserve attention," Xia Fengguang, fund manager at Rongzhi Investment, told reporters.