Over the past month, markets have been hit by a series of shocks: the Iran conflict pushing inflation higher, a sharp sell-off in bonds that drove yields up, and of course the Federal Reserve raising rates for the first time in three years.
JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka wrote in a research note: "From a broad market perspective, we maintain our view: once the volatility in oil prices and interest rates subsides and the seasonal September slump passes, stocks will resume their climb. October will bring third-quarter earnings that are likely to be strong, giving the rally further fuel. Technology has a very heavy weight, and if the tech sector strengthens, its pull on the broader market will be very pronounced."
Below are three market charts from Truist that send an optimistic signal.
Chart One: Valuation Reset Is Complete
From a valuation standpoint, stocks are not particularly expensive right now. According to Truist data, the S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19 times; since June 2, the index level has been essentially flat. Stock market valuations have returned to a reasonable range.
Chart Two: Earnings Are the Core Driver of Share Prices
U.S. corporate earnings have been broadly strong this year. For a standout example, look no further than Nike (NKE). Corporate earnings remain solid.
Chart Three: Looking Ahead to 2027, the Outlook Is Positive
The market's earnings expectations for 2027 are already quite robust. Earnings expectation revisions chart.