NewAmsterdam Pharma's (NAMS) PREVAIL phase 3 trial faces "considerable" risk at the interim analysis, but could prevail eventually, RBC said in a report Monday after an "in-depth" statistical analysis.

The report said proprietary work finds risk on potentially

too few MACE-3 events, with 35% to 38% probability of success for the interim results.

"Still, we see a number of potential mitigators, including that

our assumptions may be more conservative than necessary, a high PoS final analysis by end-'27, and investor sentiment which we think may be reflecting a miss already," the report said.

The PREVAIL interim announcement in Q1 of 2027 is expected to be the largest near-term catalyst, the note said.

RBC cut its price target to $42 from $50 to reflect caution on the interim analysis and the more negative investor sentiment.

"We still think risk/reward at these levels could skew favorably,

and remain outperform," the report said.

Price: 22.64, Change: -0.56, Percent Change: -2.41