Artificial intelligence has the power to change shopping, if it becomes consumers' first stop, even before walking into a store or opening an app.

Yet the more things change, the more they stay the same.

Rather than unearthing hidden gems or new, digitally native brands, AI in many cases recommended the biggest retailers more often than not. That's the takeaway from new research by UBS. Analyst Michael Lasser.

The UBS team submitted a dozen identical shopping prompts to ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, and Muse in three areas: New Jersey, New York, and Minnesota. Their findings: "AI recommendations generally reinforce established industry leadership," he writes, with Walmart leading the list, followed by Costco Wholesale.

"Retailers with scale, recognizable brands, broad physical networks, and clearly articulated value propositions appeared most consistently," he added.

Target, BJ's Wholesale Club, and Dick's Sporting Goods rounded out the top five.

That makes sense: The biggest retailers often have the largest footprints and the widest selection of merchandise. Their scale makes it easier for them to offer lower prices -- and the AI agent doesn't have to worry about whether or not they'll actually fulfill that order in a timely manner.

Nonetheless, it does dispel the idea, for now anyway, that AI will be a great equalizer -- allowing newer or smaller brands to be discovered and compete more effectively with the behemoths. The research also shows that it favors traditional retailers over online ones, meaning it won't be the end of brick and mortar.

In fact, Lasser writes that the results were especially meaningful for Walmart, as it was frequently the top recommendation and the secondary one as well, across categories from groceries to auto parts: "This suggests that AI models increasingly view Walmart as a default answer for everyday consumption."

Other large retailers can follow Walmart's lead by leaning into AI, he writes. But they don't necessarily have to compete on price; reputation, exclusivity or another expertise can be effective too.

Costco, the No. two recommendation was rarely suggested "because of convenience or immediacy. Instead, it was repeatedly associated with value, quality, and bulk purchasing," Lasser writes. "The consistency with which Costco appeared across models suggests that its brand equity has become deeply embedded within the information ecosystem from which AI models learn."

Being the best at something, even if it isn't having the lowest price, pays when it comes to AI. For instance: Dick's and Aldi popped up frequently, which Lasser attributes to their leadership in their corners of the industry -- and being known for a particular attribute, like value.

Still, it isn't all bad news for those left out. Recommendations were much more varied in categories where availability was location-dependent, or no retailer was the obvious winner. This includes big categories like furniture and Korean beauty products, showing there's still AI market share up for grabs.

Ultimately though, Lasser believes that "retailers with the clearest consumer value propositions" are winning the AI race, much as they have been winning more of consumers' spending.

Perhaps then it's just another case of artificial intelligence imitating humanity.