The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0836 ET - CBOT grain futures slide as the market begins to steel itself for this Friday's WASDE report. "Traders are starting to position themselves," says Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net in a note. Analysts surveyed by WSJ forecast a slightly lower production outlook for corn, with a yield cut of 0.9 bushels per acre from the prior month's estimate of 178.5 bpa. Soybean production and yields are expected to inch higher, with yields seen at 52.9 bushels an acre. With traders still holding sizable long positions in grains, rallies ahead of the report are expected to be limited, says Bratland. Corn slides 0.7% premarket, soybeans fall 0.1%, and wheat is down 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0832 ET - A workers strike at Antofagasta's Centinela copper and gold mine in Chile is a surprise, but likely to be resolved within a couple of weeks, RBC's Ben Davis and David Monus write. They add that given tight inventories in the copper market outside of the U.S., the action could have a larger than normal impact on prices. "Higher copper prices incentivize bigger asks from unions, but there has been remarkably little strike action year to date," they say. RBC has an underperform rating on the stock and 33.00 pound target price. Shares are down 3.55% at 36.93 pounds, but 13% higher over the year-to-date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0622 ET - Europe's refining industry is key to the continent's energy policy, says Liana Gouta, director-general of industry group FuelsEurope. European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen this week announced a strategic dialogue on European refineries, a move aimed at bringing down diesel costs and ensuring supply, including for Europe's defense industry. That launch is welcome, Gouta says. "We look forward to working with policymakers to ensure that competitiveness, security of supply and industrial transformation advance together, supported by a strong and resilient European refining sector," she says. Boosting refineries is a "long-term prerequisite" for Europe's climate, energy and industrial goals, says the group, whose energy-major members include ExxonMobil, BP, Italy's Eni and Norway's Equinor. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
0612 ET - Palm oil futures closed lower, weighed by weaker soybean oil and concerns about high domestic inventories, says David Ng, trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng expects crude palm oil futures to find support at 4,500 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,650 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 36 ringgit to 4,566 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0551 ET - Gold's structural drivers haven't disappeared despite the recent correction, Phillip Nova's Priyanka Sachdeva says in a note. Spot gold has corrected to the $4,100-$4,200 an ounce region this week and is last 1.1% lower at $4,118.09 an ounce. Still, geopolitical uncertainty and fragile Middle Eastern oil flows continue to keep investors interested in gold despite the recent correction, she says. The analyst reckons that $4,000 an ounce remains an important level--a move toward this zone could attract conviction-based, staggered buying if the longer-term structural story remains intact. Gold's direction will depend more on how geopolitical risk translates into oil prices, inflation expectations, as well as U.S. Treasury yields, she adds. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0403 ET - Gold prices fall as investors await the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes for more cues on this year's inflation and monetary policy outlook. According to the FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in less than a 22% chance of further hikes this month. In early European trading, gold futures are down 0.6% at $4,159.90 a troy ounce. "Tuesday's advance to $4,180 was met with fresh selling as oil prices rebounded and long-end bond yields remained near multiyear highs," analysts at Saxo Bank say. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is up 0.3% at 102.19, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0024 ET - Supply disruptions due to conflicts including the Iran war are pushing countries to diversify their energy systems, with energy security, not just climate goals, becoming a primary driver, says Alexandra Symeonidi at William Blair. This is supporting demand for critical metals and creating investment opportunities in emerging markets, since many of these resources are concentrated there, the analyst says in a report. Cheap renewable energy could unlock significant GDP growth potential for many EMs and translate to broader growth in consumption and commodity demand. Policy momentum is already accelerating across Asia. China, India, South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines have set aggressive renewable capacity targets, positioning the region at the center of the buildout, she says. (monica.gupta@wsj.com)
2245 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, weighed by cautious sentiment ahead of the key Malaysian Palm Oil Board supply-demand data, says David Ng, trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Concerns about persistently high inventories are also keeping a lid on prices, he adds. Ng expects crude palm oil futures to find support at 4,500 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,650 ringgit a ton.The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is down 21 ringgit at 4,539 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2204 ET - Malaysia's Budget 2027 is expected to offer policy support to favor domestic manufacturing and strengthen the automotive supply chain, says Affin Hwang IB analyst Afifah Ishak in a note. This should benefit companies with meaningful manufacturing footprints in Malaysia, including selected auto-part suppliers, while companies with limited local value-added activities could face pressure, she says. The shift could benefit auto assembler Inokom, owned by Sime Darby and Bermaz Auto, if stricter requirements encourage vehicle manufacturers to move from imports to local assembly. Malaysia's automotive supply chain remains concentrated in traditional components, while capabilities in higher-value areas such as EV batteries and electric drivetrains are still at an early stage of development, she notes. Affin Hwang maintains a neutral rating on Malaysia's auto and auto-parts sector. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2110 ET - Glencore's ASX debut, due on Oct. 14, comes at a time of improving operational and financial performance for the miner, says UBS. Glencore's Ebitda jumped in FY 2026 and copper's contribution to earnings is rising, progressively reshaping its portfolio away from thermal coal, UBS says. "The Marketing division remains a key differentiator versus BHP and RIO, providing earnings diversification that can behave differently from mining operations through the commodity cycle," says the bank. Still, UBS says BHP remains the sector leader for earnings scale and durability. "Unlike peers where a larger proportion of future value creation is tied to project execution, BHP's earnings are predominantly generated by operations already running at scale, including the world's largest listed copper franchise and the sector's most profitable iron ore business," it says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2037 ET - Gold edges lower in Asian trade. Investors could be waiting for the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes due Wednesday in the U.S. for fresh clues on its monetary policy outlook, says UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research team in a note. A higher interest-rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets such as gold. Spot gold declines 0.2% to $4,156.50 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
1536 ET - Crude futures recover from early losses and settle fractionally higher with market optimism about increased shipments out of the Middle East tempered by continued conflict risk. Crude markets "recovered into the plus column but with upside still limited by the increased flow of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. Risk of renewed disruptions remain if Iran steps up attacks on vessels or the Houthis succeed in restricting crude movement through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, the firm adds. WTI settles up 1 cent at $89.44 a barrel and Brent edges up 0.3% to $100.58 a barrel.