ConocoPhillips (COP) is likely to accelerate share repurchases as it works to catch up on its 2026 shareholder return commitment, with strong operations helping offset Middle East disruptions and lower Surmont volumes, UBS said in a note Tuesday.

UBS said the company returned about 40% of cash from operations in H1 and needs to move toward 50% in H2 to meet its 45% full-year target. The firm forecasts buybacks of $2.5 billion in Q3 and $2.75 billion in Q4.

The firm expects new CEO Andy O'Brien, on his first earnings call, to stick to the company's playbook of disciplined capital allocation and return on capital, while giving a positive update on long-term projects.

The firm forecasts Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.10, above the Street's $2.96, and expects consensus to move toward its estimate as models are updated for commodity prices.

UBS reiterated the company's buy rating and $169 price target.

Price: 129.40, Change: +0.05, Percent Change: +0.03