Sometimes investors can get too caught up in the Wall Street consensus.

Take EV maker Lucid. It delivered 3,806 cars, down about 7% year over year. That was a disappointment, according to FactSet. The average analyst estimate on that platform was about 4,000 cars. Lucid's number was encouraging, according to Bloomberg. The average analyst estimate there was about 3,600 cars.

The FactSet and Bloomberg numbers average fewer than five analysts. That isn't much of a consensus.

Lucid's delivery number looks OK, but it still means selling luxury EVs is getting tougher. At the start of the year, Lucid said it expected to produce about 26,000 EVs. It abandoned that guidance mid-year. Through the third quarter, it had made just 13,000. (Lucid's best quarter of production was 8,412 cars made in the fourth quarter of 2025.)

Between Bloomberg and FactSet, Wall Street projects 2026 vehicle sales of about 15,000 units. Lucid would need to sell about 5,000 cars in the fourth quarter to do that. It's possible, but quarterly sales have been below 4,000 units in 2026. (Lucid delivered a record 5,345 cars in the fourth quarter of 2025.)

Lucid stock was down 0.2% in premarket trading at $4.16, while S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively.

Investors seem fine with the delivery number, for now. But they haven't been happy with the year. Coming into Tuesday trading, Lucid stock was down about 61% so far this year.

Decelerating sales growth has sapped investor enthusiasm for shares. Two years ago, Wall Street projected 2026 vehicle sales of about 33,000 cars. The U.S. EV market has turned out smaller than expected, and is shrinking after the September 2025 loss of the $7,500 Federal EV purchase tax credit.

Lucid has several catalysts that could boost shares in the coming months, however, said Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard. For starters, Lucid reports earnings on Nov. 9. The company is also rolling out robo-taxis via a partnership with Uber Technologies and Nuro. It is building a new production facility in Saudi Arabia. A new midsize car should arrive in 2027 to complement the Air sedan and Gravity SUV.

Shares could get a boost from any of that. Still, Sheppard rates Lucid stock Hold and has an $8 price target. That's up about 90% from recent levels.

Overall, the average analyst price target for Lucid stock is about $7, but only three out of 12, or 25%, of analysts covering the stock rate shares Buy.