Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0547 ET - U.K. government bond yields rise but are below recent highs and increase by less than French peers, where fiscal concerns are building. Gilt yields rise largely due to global factors, although investors are cautious ahead of the Oct. 28 budget, Luke Hickmore at Aberdeen Investments says in a note. "Oil, conflict in the Middle East and rising U.S. yields are pushing borrowing costs up everywhere." The budget will be key for gilts, however. If the U.K. government delivers fiscal discipline as promised, gilt yields could fall, he says. The 10-year gilt yield rises 3.3 basis points to 5.391% but stays below Thursday's three-year high of 5.505%, according to Tradeweb. The French equivalent rises 5.9 bps to 4.916%. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0546 ET - U.S. Treasury yields have risen in recent months, but the drivers have shifted, Capital Economics analysts write in a note. The sell-off earlier in the year initially reflected higher term premia and concerns over fiscal sustainability, before rising oil prices fueled expectations for higher inflation and interest rates from July, they say. More recently, however, 10-year yields have continued to rise even as oil prices have flattened, which suggests term premia are again driving the move. The markets may be overpricing the extent of future Fed tightening, with investors pricing at least three 25bp hikes over the next year--compared with its previous forecast for two--taking the Fed Funds target to 4.25% to 4.50%. Still, fiscal risks could keep term premia elevated, leaving the outlook for longer-dated treasuries fragile.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0327 ET - Uncertainty around U.S. tariffs is expected to persist for now, says John Denton, secretary-general of the International Chamber of Commerce. The issue is over the price of accessing the U.S. market, as most economies have decided not to retaliate against the U.S. tariffs, he says. The biggest challenge facing the global economy is the uncertainty in the current macroeconomic situation, rather than tariffs, he says. ICC estimates around $600 billion worth of lost economic activity and investment over the last two years due to uncertainties faced by global businesses. Still, the U.S. only accounts for 13% of global trade, and the increase in AI investment and related goods have been supporting trade levels, Denton adds. "The whole idea that the trading system is collapsing is a false narrative."