Mortgages Rates Hit 3-Year High-and Price Cuts are on the Rise

Dow Jones
13 hours ago

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.4% this week, the highest level since November 2023, according to Freddie Mac data. The gain comes as price cuts are already on the rise.

That's up from 7.28% one week prior. The measure of mortgage rates has risen for seven straight weeks, with the average 30-year fixed rate up roughly 0.75 percentage point in that time.

On a $400,000 home loan, that seven-week run-up in mortgage rates translates to a roughly $200 a month increase in principal and interest payments.

The side effects of rising mortgage rates are already showing up in early data, with price cuts rising and newly pending sales falling.

The sharp rise in rates has been a gut punch for both buyers, who must cut their budgets as financing costs rise, and investors banking on a pickup in home sales.

The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund, which tracks the home building industry, is down 10.8% since the end of August, according to Dow Jones Market Data. That's the fund's worst performance in the same time frame since the period ended Oct. 6, 2023.

"The housing market remains stuck in a holding pattern, with high rates and poor affordability limiting both supply and demand," a team of TD Cowen researchers wrote in a note earlier this week.

The team expects that mortgage rates will move modestly lower by the end of the year, to 6.8%, and to fall further, to 6.6%, by the end of 2027.

"Given the majority of the outstanding market is not refinancable and buying new homes would likely be due to a change in circumstance rather than more attractive mortgage rates, we would not expect the move lower in rates to be the reason for increased strength in the housing market," they wrote.

The significant rise comes as bonds prices have dropped, sending yields higher. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is based on the 10-year Treasury yield, which is up 0.533 percentage point since the end of August to a preliminary 5.290 on Thursday, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

"Higher mortgage rates are keeping most homeowners from refinancing and causing many prospective buyers to pull back," Mortgage Bankers Association CEO Bob Broeksmit said in a Thursday morning statement.

 

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