The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0934 ET - Yields on U.K. government bonds, or gilts, fall faster than their eurozone peers as oil prices decline after President Trump said talks with Iran were going well. "Whilst markets are not holding their breath for a quick resolution to the conflict, it's encouraging that neither side is willing to abandon the negotiating table," XM's Raffi Boyadjian says in a note. News about the U.S.-Iran talks have caused market sentiment to improve. Ten-year gilt yields fall 6.6 basis points to last trade at 5.423%, Tradeweb data show. Ten-year Bund yields fall 4.2 basis points to 3.464%. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0922 ET - Canada's job market stumbled again in September with a surprise drop in employment for a second month running. The economy shed 68,000 jobs, where the consensus call of economists was for a thin 9,000 rise in employment. That pushed the unemployment rate up 0.1 percentage point to 6.5%. That returns it to where it was in June, and at the start of the year, but remains below the recent peak of 6.9% in April. Job losses were split between full- and part-time positions, and led by declines in educational services and health care and social assistance. Manufacturing also lost 12,700 jobs in what was the first full month since the Trump administration imposed fresh tariffs on goods imported from Canada. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
0905 ET - Japan potentially introducing tax-free opportunities to hold domestic government bonds would have positive implications for the yen, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. It would possibly impact flows into foreign equity markets, supporting the yen, he says. Japan Investment Trust flows showed foreign equity purchases reached a record high of 3.9 trillion yen in the three months to September. This captures household buying of foreign securities via the NISA tax-free investment program, Halpenny says. "Annualizing this three-month flow implies an outflow of close to 16 trillion yen and is an increasing negative yen factor." In July, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama floated the idea of adding Japanese government bonds to NISA. The dollar rises 0.2% to 158.23 yen. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0902 ET - U.S. and European high-yield credit continues to benefit from solid investor demand, Fitch Ratings says in a note. "Given the strong demand for high-yield bonds, lenders and investors are competing to finance leveraged issuers." High-yield credit spreads remain below the average for the past 20-years, they say. "These technical conditions support the continued appeal of high-yield and leveraged finance on a risk-adjusted return basis." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0900 ET - Treasury yields rise but stay below recent highs as oil prices ease. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 10 a.m. ET is forecast to tick higher, according to a WSJ consensus. Markets turn attention to U.S. September CPI inflation due next week. The numbers are expected to guide the Fed's next decision, which is priced in so far as a hold. The 10-year yield is at 5.250%, up from yesterday's settlement of 5.232%. The two-year rises to 4.785% from 4.753%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
0859 ET - The Canadian dollar falls to an 18-month low against the U.S. dollar after data showed Canada unexpectedly shed jobs again in September. Employers cut 68,300 jobs in September after 41,700 jobs lost in August. Economists in a WSJ survey had expected a 9,000 increase in employment. The data dampen the prospect of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates on Oct. 28. The U.S. dollar rises to 1.4298 Canadian dollars, its highest level since April 2025, compared to 1.4231 before the data, according to LSEG data. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0750 ET - Major economies are expected to experience faster growth, mainly driven by the U.S. AI expansion which is spilling into other industries and economies, J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management's Raphael Olszyna-Marzys says in a note. High energy prices are also likely to drive up inflation, causing central banks to raise interest rates, he says. J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management forecasts the U.S., U.K., and European Central Banks will raise interest rates to 5.0%, 4.25%, and 3.0%, respectively, by 2027. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0746 ET - Spain's general election will hinge on the subject of housing, Pablo Muylle at ING says in a note. Expanding protections for tenants can ease the housing crisis, but such measures won't solve the underlying issue of insufficient supply. Administrative bottlenecks and labor shortages have limited the construction of new homes, which has in turn driven up rents. In the upcoming election, the incumbent Socialist party favors rent caps and eviction protection, while the centre-right Popular Party is looking to strip back regulation to encourage investment. Each side holds part of the answer, Muylle says. "Tenant protection has clear social value... But protection primarily determines how an existing shortage is distributed. It cannot, on its own, increase the number of homes." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0735 ET - The Swiss franc should strengthen further following the sharp widening of spreads in French-German government bond yields, J.P. Morgan analysts say in a note. The low-yielding franc was previously negatively correlated to European spreads widening as it was driven partly by central bank tightening, which encouraged carry strategies, they say. Carry trades involve borrowing in currencies with low yields to invest in currencies with higher yields. The more aggressive widening in spreads recently reflects French debt concerns, causing markets to price in weaker growth and unwind carry trades. As a safe haven, the franc is sensitive to European growth, they say. The euro falls 0.1% to 0.9316 francs, having reached a 10-week low of 0.9258 last week, LSEG data show.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0717 ET - Morgan Stanley maintains its exposure to the intermediate segment of the Japanese government bond curve, expecting both shorter- and longer-tenor bonds to underperform. "Faster Bank of Japan hike pricing could compress term premia through financial-conditions concerns, while super-long resilience appears vulnerable to a reversal in GPIF [Government Pension Investment Fund] repatriation expectations," strategists Koichi Sugisaki and Hiromu Uezato say in a note. Super-long JGB yields could face renewed upward pressure as pension rebalancing following yen strength likely shifts allocations from domestic to foreign assets. Meanwhile, yen weakness could sustain hawkish front-end pricing as markets focus more on political developments rather than economic fundamentals, they add. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0713 ET - Evidence of economic resilience in Europe should help stabilize the euro after recent losses on French fiscal concerns, MUFG Bank's Derek Halpenny says in a note. Germany's government raised its forecast for economic growth to 1.3% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027 from previous forecasts of 0.5% and 0.9% respectively. "Growth had been downgraded in response to the war but the new estimate for this year is above the 1.0% estimate at the start of the year underlining the level of resilience," Halpenny says. This resilience will help maintain current market pricing for European Central Bank interest-rate rises, he says. The euro is steady at $1.1205, having hit a more than 16-month low of $1.1160 Monday, according to LSEG.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0712 ET - French government debt poses greater risks than Greece did during the eurozone sovereign debt crisis, Commerzbank's Joerg Kraemer says in a note. Public debt across the eurozone currently averages around 90% of GDP, compared with 80% in 2009, Kraemer notes. Even a small country like Greece brought the currency area close to collapse, so the systematic risks posed by a French debt crisis are even greater. Openness to fiscal reform is also weaker today, he says. Still, France has stronger institutions and greater financial capacity than Greece did, while eurozone banks are better capitalized. The ECB also has bond-purchase tools to contain market stress. "We do not expect a new sovereign debt crisis with strong contagion effects...although the risk that things could turn out differently is rising."