The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1558 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME settle up 1.6% to $2.271 a pound, breaking a two-day losing streak for cattle after the WASDE report. It's the highest the futures contract has been since early August, gaining roughly 3% since the start of the week. The USDA lowered its U.S. beef production outlook in the October WASDE report, due to lighter dressed weights and lower-than-expected feedlot placements. Lean hog futures settled trading 1.2% lower to 67.75 cents a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1439 ET - The WASDE's partial offset of reductions made to the amount of wheat Russia is expected to export this marketing year weighed on CBOT futures after the report's release. Russian exports were cut by 3 million metric tons to 40 million tons. But those cuts were partially offset by gains of half-a-million tons each for Argentina and Canada. This, along with the USDA projecting a slightly larger wheat crop in the U.S. this year sent CBOT wheat futures lower. The most-active contract falls 1.8%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1432 ET - Gold futures rise to end the week modestly higher and snap a two-week losing streak. Early declines in oil gave some support to the metal, although "the interest-rate backdrop remains challenging and leaves gold vulnerable to renewed selling pressure," Thadeu Dos Santos of Infinox says in a note. Pressure isn't limited to U.S. yields, as Japan's government has signaled it wouldn't resist further Bank of Japan tightening, and markets expect another ECB rate increase before year-end, he says. "Next week's U.S. inflation data could provide the main test for yields and gold." Front-month gold settles up 1.4% in New York at $4,191 a troy ounce, also up 1.4% on the week. Silver rises 2.7% to $60.67 for a 1.2% weekly gain. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1417 ET - After diving nearly 6%, CBOT corn futures have managed to cut some losses with most-active futures now down 4.7% to $4.91 a bushel. The WASDE showed a larger-than-expected corn production outlook, counter to what analysts anticipated. Market conditions have primed corn for further selling ahead, says Dave Toth of StoneX in a note. "It is highly likely that the extent of today's plunge is due at least in part to the overall market forcing the capitulation of this long-&-wrong exposure," says Toth. "Further meltdown should not surprise. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1406 ET - The number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by six this week to 462, a sixth consecutive rise to its highest level since May of 2025, according to data from Baker Hughes. The number of rigs was up by 44 from a year ago. The rise in oil prices since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict has prompted more drilling, with U.S. crude production reaching a record just shy of 14 million barrels a day. The EIA estimates production will average 13.9 million b/d this year and rise to 14.3 million b/d in 2027. Rigs drilling for natural gas slipped by one this week to 132, or 12 more than a year ago. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1257 ET - CBOT corn futures are down 5.8%, this after trading 0.7% higher before the WASDE report was published at noon eastern time. The report showed higher corn production and yields, opposite of what analysts expected. The surprise sparked liquidation of the sizable long position held by fund traders. "The sharp corn yield increase caught the market wrong footed, which is causing heavy liquidation pressure," says Brian Grete of Commstock Investments. "The bearish USDA surprise has changed the money flow game." Last week's Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC showed a net long fund position of 377,850 contracts, which is slightly down from highs seen earlier this year. Soybeans slide 1.3% and wheat falls 3.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1251 ET - The USDA lifted its outlook for U.S. corn production in the 2026/27 marketing year, counter to what analysts were anticipating. The USDA now forecasts the corn output at 16.03 billion bushels an acre, with a yield of 181.2 bushels an acre. Analysts surveyed by WSJ had forecast the WASDE to show corn yield to decline to 177.6 bushels an acre, with production falling 84 million bushels from the prior month to 15.72 billion bushels. "Shocking corn report with spillover selling hitting the wheat and beans so far," says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note after the report's release. Corn is now down 5.7%, while soybeans are down 1.1% and wheat falls 3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1234 ET - The USDA increases its estimate for cotton production in the 2026/27 marketing year amid larger crops in Delta states. The October WASDE report projects output at 13.44 million bales, up from 13.20 million bales in the September forecast. Ending stocks increase to 3.8 million from 3.6 million bales. World production estimate is also raised, to 117.95 million from 117.32 million bales. The front-month cotton contract pares down losses after the report and slips 0.2%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1232 ET - U.S. beef production outlook is lowered in the October WASDE report, due to lighter dressed weights and lower-than-expected feedlot placements. The USDA projects 2027 beef production at 24.7 billion pounds, down from September's projection of 24.8 billion pounds. Steer prices are unchanged at $2.38 a pound. Pork output is now expected to be 27.8 billion pounds, down from 28.1 billion pounds in the previous projection. Barrows and gilts price estimate slips to 63 from 64 cents a pound. The front-month live cattle contract rises 0.7%, while lean hogs fall 1%, both little changed from before the report. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1141 ET - A Starbucks takeover of Chipotle Mexican Group seems unlikely, D.A. Davidson analysts Matt Curtis and Andrew Tompkins write in a note. They peg the odds of a deal at around 20%. Such a deal would be transformational for Starbucks, which shares few areas of overlap with Chipotle, they write. "SBUX has never pursued large, transformative acquisitions, as past acquisitions have been much smaller brands it could integrate into its existing business," they write. Still, there are some strategic rationales for the deal for both companies: a new growth lever for Starbucks and a substantial premium and international infrastructure for Chipotle. A deal would also be a homecoming for Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol, who oversaw Chipotle's turnaround from 2018 to 2024. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1132 ET - Gold prices are headed for a weekly gain of more than 1%, supported by resilient investment demand despite rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. High borrowing costs could ultimately support gold through two scenarios, says Ole Hansen from Saxo Bank. An economic slowdown that drives yields lower and encourages monetary easing, or rising government debt-servicing costs that prompt policy intervention and weaken confidence in monetary discipline. "Neither outcome is inevitable, and further increases in real yields remain a near-term risk," he says. "Nevertheless, continued ETF accumulation suggests some investors are positioned for the potential consequences of elevated borrowing costs rather than simply responding to current interest-rate movements." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
1049 ET - Livestock futures on the CME are mixed ahead of the WASDE due at noon eastern time. The report will show updated figures for pork and beef production and demand, which can be a market mover--although typically not nearly as strongly as the moves seen in grains post-report. Live cattle is up 0.5%, pushing towards the resistance point of $2.28-2.30 a pound, says AgResource in a note. The firm says that support for cattle can be seen around $2.175 a pound. Lean hogs are down 1.3%.