Delta Air Lines stock has been a winner in a turbulent year for the sector but there's a lot riding on its earnings Friday.

Jet fuel prices have been back on the rise in recent months, recovering from the slump since the U.S. conflict with Iran started on Feb. 28 -- jumping around 60% since reaching wartime lows in June. That poses a problem for airlines this earnings season and for the rest of the year.

Carriers have relied on strong travel demand, increases to airfares, and capacity cuts to mitigate the impact of surging fuel costs. As the first to report, Delta will provide clues about how sustainable that dynamic looks moving forward.

"With earnings season upon us, the prevailing question among investors is how the industry plans to respond to higher fuel prices," Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Linenberg said earlier this week. His view is that higher airfares may be the response but warned it could start having an impact on demand.

Delta is one of just four airlines Deutsche Bank sees being profitable this year with average jet-fuel prices staying just under $4 a gallon -- United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and Allegiant are the others.

Delta has comfortably outperformed its peers, rising 19% so far in 2026. Rivals United Airlines and American Airlines have fallen 1.5% and 16%, respectively. However, it hasn't been immune to the recent pressure -- Delta's shares have fallen 10% over the past three months. Its peers have just had it worse.

It has beaten its rivals for several reasons -- including its strength in the premium travel category, where passengers are more likely to accept higher fares.

Owning a refinery in Trainer, PA has also helped. Delta's refinery revenue surged 70% to $3.75 billion in the first six months of the year, helping to offset a near $2 billion increase in fuel costs. It also generated a savings benefit of 11 cents a gallon in the second quarter.

With jet-fuel prices remaining high, the carrier will maintain its advantage.

The numbers will reveal to what extent it stays ahead. Analysts are expecting earnings per share (EPS) of $1.81 on revenue of $17.7 billion in the third quarter, according to FactSet estimates.

"We anticipate the company to report broad-based demand strength across all its products, customer cohorts, and geographies," TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald said in a note ahead of the earnings. "Frustratingly, this will be offset by the resurgence in fuel inflation since mid-year," he added, maintaining a Buy rating on the stock but lowering his price target to $101, from $105.

Attention will quickly shift to the fourth quarter, though -- typically a weaker period as leisure demand slows into the winter months. Wall Street is looking for EPS of $1.47 on revenue of $17.2 billion in the final three months of the year.

How its guidance stacks up to that could determine Delta's flight path ahead.