Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting Oct. 12.

U.S. inflation data will be the focus as investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates again by the end of this year, although a hike as soon as this month looks unlikely.

In Europe, final eurozone inflation data and U.K. economic growth figures for August are due.

In Asia, China's inflation and trade data will headline the region's economic calendar, alongside Singapore's monetary-policy decision. Investors will also assess commentary from Bank of Japan officials and minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest meeting.

Developments in bond markets will remain key for investors after yields on a number of major developed-market government bonds hit multiyear highs recently, with France in particular focus given budget concerns.

U.S.

U.S. consumer-price inflation data for September will be released on Wednesday as investors gauge the likely timing of the next interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve.

After recent weak U.S. jobs data and following comments from a number of Fed policymakers suggesting that they have time to pause before raising rates again, money markets now only price a 19% chance of a rate increase on Oct. 28, having previously priced a probability of this of up to 70%, LSEG data showed.

A quarter-point Fed rate increase in December is fully priced in, however.

The inflation data are likely to confirm these expectations.

It would take "an especially hot CPI report" to trigger a change in expectations for rates to stay on hold in October, said ING economist James Knightley in a note.

"That is not beyond the realm of possibility given the sharp increase in gasoline prices and airline fares. Nonetheless, we still expect the Fed to wait until December before raising interest rates," he said.

Producer-price data for September will be released a day later on Thursday and will give a steer on how much pipeline inflationary pressures are increasing given recent sharp rises in energy prices. Retail sales for September are also released Thursday.

Industrial production data for September are due on Friday.

Canada

The coming week is a quiet one for Canadian economic data, with August wholesale trade due on Thursday and September housing starts on Friday.

Upcoming data will be watched after recent Canadian jobs data for September were weak, reducing prospects of a near-term interest-rate hike by the Bank of Canada.

Eurozone

Final consumer-price inflation data for September are due in the coming week.

Figures for Germany are due Tuesday, followed by Spain Wednesday, France on Thursday, then Italy and the eurozone as a whole on Friday.

Eurozone industrial production for August is due on Thursday and eurozone trade data on Friday.

French government bonds will remain under scrutiny due to concerns that France might struggle to get parliamentary approval for its recent budget proposal, sending the country's 10-year sovereign bond yields to their highest since 2002.

"Investors are likely to continue to closely monitor information regarding France's budget plans for 2027," analysts at LBBW said in a note.

U.K.

U.K. gross domestic product data for August will be released on Thursday and will give an indication of whether the country's recent robust economic performance has continued, particularly as high energy costs could soon start to bite.

"The economy appears to have performed well over the summer, with hot, sunny weather probably acting as a tailwind," said Investec economist Philip Shaw said.

"Bearing in mind that the conflict around Iran has now entered its eighth month, the U.K. economy has shown impressive resilience," he said.

U.K. industrial production and trade data for August are also released on Thursday. Other data include the BRC retail sales monitor for September on Tuesday.

Japan

Investors will watch comments from Bank of Japan officials for clues to the timing of the next rate hike. BOJ policy board member Junko Koeda will address business leaders in the southern prefecture of Kumamoto on Thursday. Deputy Gov. Shinichi Uchida will deliver remarks on behalf of Gov. Kazuo Ueda at an event on Friday.

The central bank will release a consumer sentiment survey on Tuesday, followed by August machinery orders data on Thursday.

The BOJ will buy Japanese government bonds on Friday with remaining maturities of more than three years and up to five years, more than 10 years and up to 25 years, and more than 25 years. The purchases are likely to support the domestic bond market.

The Ministry of Finance will auction about 2.5 trillion yen of five-year government notes on Wednesday. Investor demand remains uncertain as markets await further policy signals from BOJ officials.

Japanese markets will be closed on Monday for a national holiday.

China

China's September trade and inflation figures, due Wednesday, will show whether exports remain a source of strength for the world's second-largest economy as higher food and energy costs add to price pressures.

Bank of America expects exports in U.S. dollar terms to rise 24.5% from a year earlier, easing only slightly from August's 25.0% increase. The slowdown would largely reflect a higher base of comparison a year earlier.

Although a manufacturing survey showed a slight weakening in new export orders, "actual exports are likely to remain supported by strong chip and automobile shipments," BofA economists said in a note.

Import growth likely slowed to 26.0% from 28.2%, as a renewed decline in crude oil arrivals partly offset strength in technology imports, the economists said, citing tanker data. Those forecasts would leave China with a trade surplus of $107 billion, narrower than in August.

Inflation, meanwhile, likely picked up. BofA expects annual consumer inflation to edge up to 0.9% from 0.8% in August, with vegetable and pork prices rising from the previous month.

"Higher global oil prices, together with recent domestic fuel price hikes, are also likely to feed through to transportation costs," the economists said.

They expect producer prices to rise 4.3% from a year earlier, up from 3.8% in August, driven by monthly price increases for energy products, nonferrous metals and refined petroleum products.

Elsewhere on the calendar, September money supply figures are due Monday and foreign direct investment data are due Thursday.

Australia/New Zealand

In Australia, the flow of high-frequency economic data returns, with traders looking first at the release of September employment data on Thursday.

The data set can be a lottery, with economists expecting a small rise in employment of around 15,000 for the month, and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.6%. Still, the numbers could be instrumental in shaping expectations for a further interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank of Australia in November.

Interest rates now stand at their highest level in 15 years after four increases this year. Given the growing impact of that policy tightening, rising fuel costs, and a significant fall in house prices this year, the job market could soon reflect the gloomy mood among consumers and firms.

A sudden rise in the unemployment rate could cause the RBA to signal the end of rate hikes.

The release of the RBA's September policy meeting minutes on Tuesday will also be closely watched. Still, the bank's hawkishness is well established, so it will take a significant change in its rhetoric to impact markets.

India

India's September inflation figures will offer an early look at price pressures following the Reserve Bank of India's first interest-rate increase in more than three years.

ING economists expect annual consumer inflation to jump to 5.4% from 4.8% in August, driven by food and fuel prices. The data are due Monday.

"Pressures have built up due to the overhang of an uneven and sub-par monsoon, drought conditions in parts of the country, and elevated oil prices," DBS economists said. With inflation rising, DBS expects the RBI to keep the door open to another rate hike in December.

Trade figures are also due during the week. Investors will watch whether export earnings can help offset a rising energy import bill.

Singapore

Singapore's central bank will announce its monetary-policy decision on Wednesday, following an unexpected tightening in September. That move was smaller than April's adjustment, with the Monetary Authority of Singapore citing continued heightened uncertainty.

CIMB economists expect another modest tightening in October. They forecast that the MAS will increase the slope of its exchange-rate policy band "very slightly" by 25 basis points to 1.50%, while leaving other settings unchanged. A steeper slope would allow the Singapore dollar to appreciate faster, helping limit the cost of imports.

Stronger growth and imported costs feeding more broadly into domestic prices likely support further tightening. But an expected easing of inflation in the fourth quarter and mixed signals on growth could favor another smaller adjustment, the economists said in a note.

Singapore will also release preliminary third-quarter gross domestic product estimates on Wednesday and September nonoil domestic exports data on Friday. The figures will show how the economy is faring in the second half amid geopolitical tensions.

The economy likely grew 5.4% from a year earlier in the third quarter, slowing from 5.9% in the second, DBS economists said. Trade linked to artificial intelligence likely continued to drive manufacturing and wholesale trade, while strength in finance helped support the services sector, they added.

"This came despite a moderation of the transport & storage sector, and weakness in consumer-facing food services and retail sectors," DBS said.

Nonoil domestic export growth likely slowed to 35% in September from August's 46.2%, partly reflecting a higher base of comparison a year earlier, Barclays said.

Malaysia

Malaysia's statistics department will release preliminary third-quarter GDP data at noon on Friday, offering a broader picture of how demand for electronics is supporting the region's growth.

DBS economists Taimur Baig and Nathan Chow expect Malaysia's economy to have grown 5.0% in the third quarter, supported by export-oriented manufacturing as demand for AI-related electronics remains strong.

Investment and private consumption should also sustain domestic demand, they said in a note.

Weakness in mining and agriculture, however, is likely to weigh on overall growth.

Any references to days are in local times.