The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1159 ET - Qatar's LNG exports are likely to remain constrained in the near term, but a sustained recovery in Hormuz transits could trigger a sharp increase in flows next year as the expansion of the North Field offsets lasting damage to existing capacity, Capital Economics' Jason Tuvey says. Current indicators suggest exports remain very low, although the data may understate flows as some tankers appear to be switching off their transponders. A sustained recovery in transits is expected from early next year, according to the economist. Damage to the Ras Laffan facility has knocked out around 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity for three to five years. However, the first train of the North Field East project is reportedly ready to start, Tuvey says, raising capacity by 43%. The second and third phases, due by 2030, are expected to lift capacity by a further 30%. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

1127 ET - El Niño is getting stronger, says the NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. It's now more than likely that the system will continue to be a stronger-than-usual condition into January through March 2027, the agency says in an update. This widens the window for when unusually-severe weather events may take place due to El Niño. "With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed," says the Climate Prediction Center in its update. The agency adds that in some places, El Niño is right now raising water temperatures by as much as 4 degrees Celsius in areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean - creating weather patterns that are more-severe departures from what's usually seen in the winter months. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1115 ET - Gold futures pick up from yesterday's two-month low with the market digesting the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting. "Most policymakers judged another increase would likely be appropriate by year-end, keeping the yellow metal under pressure," Critical Metals CEO Tony Sage says in a note. "A strong dollar and elevated U.S. and European yields kept the opportunity cost of holding bullion high, further limiting the possibility of a rebound." Further Fed tightening could keep gold at risk, while demand from central banks may limit losses, he adds. Gold for December delivery is up 0.5% in New York at $4,161.10 a troy ounce. Silver is down 1.1% at $59.62 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1101 ET - U.S. natural gas futures give up gains as a weekly inventory build comes in above expectations. Gas in underground storage increased by 85 billion cubic feet to 3,500 Bcf in the week ended Oct. 2, the EIA reports. The increase was below the five-year average for the week of 96 Bcf, but above the 79 Bcf estimate in a WSJ survey of analysts. Inventories stood 68 Bcf above the 2021-2025 average, compared with a surplus of 79 Bcf the previous week. Nymex natural gas is off 0.8% at $3.177/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1059 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are down 0.6%, continuing a slide that started yesterday. Cattle slaughters are up 19,000 head from a historic low hit last week, says AgResource in a note. On the demand side, export sales of U.S. beef for the week ended Oct. 1 fell back from the prior week-- totaling 13,000 metric tons for delivery in 2026. That's down 11%, says the USDA, but it's also up 11% from the previous 4-week average. South Korea was the leading buyer, followed by Japan and Mexico. Lean hog futures are down 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

1047 ET - A strong El Nino could provide some relief for Europe's natural-gas market over the coming months, says Capital Economics' David Oxley. Warmer-than-average temperatures would reduce heating demand from households and small businesses, lowering overall gas consumption. At the same time, stronger winds could increase electricity generation from wind power, further reducing reliance on gas-fired power generation. This would be particularly helpful given that European gas storage levels are currently around 18 billion cubic meters below their five-year average, according to the economist. Lower demand could therefore reduce competition with Asia for limited global LNG supplies and limit the risk of a sharp increase in gas prices. Capital Economics forecasts the Dutch TTF contract, Europe's benchmark, to end the year at 80 euros a megawatt-hour, broadly in line with current levels. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0957 ET - The dollar index higher in morning trade, pairing with highs reached in Treasury yields putting pressure on grain futures and other commodities. A stronger dollar makes U.S. grain exports less competitive on the world market. "Outside markets are increasingly important -- and mostly negative for grains," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull in a note. Uncertainty stemming from wars in the Black Sea and Middle East add to inflation concerns. CBOT corn falls 0.7% in early trading, while soybeans slide 0.6% and wheat is up 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0949 ET - CBOT grain futures are lower in early trading, as traders get in position ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report from the USDA. "Typically, in the October report, the USDA will make minor changes, and trade estimates are looking for a slight yield reduction," says Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net in a note. With fund traders still holding big net long positions in grains, particularly in corn, some traders may be considering liquidating if the WASDE yields a negative surprise, like larger ending stock projections or larger production outlooks. CBOT corn falls 0.6% early, soybeans slide 0.7%, and wheat is down 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0923 ET - The rally in U.S. natural gas futures stretches into a fifth session with the market expecting an eighth consecutive below-average inventory build to further reduce the storage surplus over the five-year average. The EIA is due to release weekly storage data at 10:30 a.m. ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey predict a 79 Bcf injection. The market is also watching Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf, which is expected to shut in some natural gas production but could also disrupt LNG exports. Nymex natural gas is up 2% at $3.268/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0911 ET - Oil futures are sharply higher on concerns the U.S. could be preparing for renewed strikes on Iran while Hurricane Isaias heads for the U.S. Gulf coast, shutting in production. "Houthi strikes against Saudi Arabia, speculation over a resumption of U.S. military strikes against Iran, and President Trump's stated preference against a deal combine to paint a volatile geopolitical backdrop," says Nikos Tzabouras of Tradu. But the picture isn't "uniformly bullish," he adds, noting gradual increases in supply and the G7 commitment to release additional reserves. WTI is up 4.7% at $92.46 a barrel and Brent gains 4.5% to $104.76 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0605 ET - Palm oil futures closed higher, rebounding thanks to firmer crude oil, gains in Dalian vegetable oils and expectations for stronger demand from India, says David Ng, trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng expects crude palm oil futures to find support at 4,500 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,700 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery rose 139 ringgit to 4,663 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0351 ET - Gold prices tick higher as traders assess the possibility of another Federal Reserve interest-rate hike this year. Minutes from the September FOMC meeting showed most policymakers expected another hike by the end of the year, but didn't make an urgent case for such a move at the next meeting in October. In early trading, New York gold futures are up 0.1% to $4,143.40 a troy ounce. "The price action highlights an ongoing battle between macro and technically focused traders selling gold in response to higher funding costs and dollar strength, and investors seeking protection against the potential fiscal fallout from rising debt and borrowing costs," analysts at Saxo Bank say.